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Hope you boys sold sold sold today #7703079
10/28/22 03:26 PM
10/28/22 03:26 PM
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 10,955
Ky
J
jbyrd63 Offline OP
trapper
jbyrd63  Offline OP
trapper
J

Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 10,955
Ky
Looked at the dow man good day to quit.

But white tell me something. I understand it depends on individual stock and a persons portfolio. BUT WHY IS EVERYONES or people I talk to 401K is in the crapper. When it first went to 32,000 everyone was a millionaire LOL SOO now it's back why still massive loses.
Asking for a friend LOL

Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703121
10/28/22 04:13 PM
10/28/22 04:13 PM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 506
Western New York
T
Tony1967 Offline
trapper
Tony1967  Offline
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T

Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 506
Western New York
Cause we are still 4000 from its high point. When you go down 10%, takes more than that on the way back up to get ya where ya were……

Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703153
10/28/22 04:54 PM
10/28/22 04:54 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 15,908
Rodney,Ohio
SNIPERBBB Offline
trapper
SNIPERBBB  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 15,908
Rodney,Ohio
Depends on where they're invested... Looked at mine and the top 3 stocks it has are down around 30 avg YTD. Facebook is #4 and jts down 70% YTD

Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703459
10/28/22 09:45 PM
10/28/22 09:45 PM
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 34,072
McGrath, AK
W
white17 Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
white17  Offline

"General (Mr.Sunshine) Washington"
W

Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 34,072
McGrath, AK
Originally Posted by jbyrd63
Looked at the dow man good day to quit.

But white tell me something. I understand it depends on individual stock and a persons portfolio. BUT WHY IS EVERYONES or people I talk to 401K is in the crapper. When it first went to 32,000 everyone was a millionaire LOL SOO now it's back why still massive loses.
Asking for a friend LOL



Well a couple of things to consider. When you say 32,000 you are talking about the Dow index DJIA. Most people who use ETF's and index mutual funds are using the S&P 500.. There's a big difference between the two.

Yes it depends on what stocks you own. The index can go up but your specific stocks can go down at the same time. All 30 of the stocks in the DOW are represented equally.


Part of the difference is that the DOW is price-weighted.

The S&P 500 ( SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 ( NDX) are market capitalization weighted. This means that the larger companies have greater influence on the index level than small companies.

Here is an excerpt from an article talking about this subject. The author uses Apple (AAPL) as an example.

"AAPL’s rally has been a huge boon to NDX. It is not just a matter of an index benefitting from its largest stock moving higher. It is also that AAPL has become an even larger part of the index’ weight this week. The logic is simple – if AAPL is rising smartly while the next few largest companies have shrunk by 5-10% or more, then AAPL’s relative weight in NDX has grown. When your #1 stock represents about 14% of the index, and that #1 stock shoots up by 7%, it is a real boon – and far outweighs the #4 stock falling by 10%."

If this statement is valid......and it is.........then it is easy to see why an index can go up while some or many stocks in that index go down at the same time.

Here's the link to that short article if you are interested.
https://www.tradersinsight.news/tra...heavy-indices/?blst=tinewsletter_ftrBtn.

Also Tony ..above...is correct that if you have a loss, it takes a greater rise to get back to even.

Example: Lets say you have $100 in Tesla. Tesla drops by 50%. You now have $50 worth of stock. TSLA must rise 100% for you to get back to the 100$ mark.

Here is a chart that shows how much gain is required to make up specific % losses.

[Linked Image]


Mean As Nails
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703476
10/28/22 09:58 PM
10/28/22 09:58 PM
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1,320
Kansas
K
Kansas Cat Offline
trapper
Kansas Cat  Offline
trapper
K

Joined: May 2011
Posts: 1,320
Kansas
As David Byrne of The Talking Heads would say, "Stop Making Sense!". LOL.

Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703481
10/28/22 10:05 PM
10/28/22 10:05 PM
Joined: May 2018
Posts: 7,855
SW Georgia
W
Wanna Be Offline
trapper
Wanna Be  Offline
trapper
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Joined: May 2018
Posts: 7,855
SW Georgia
Originally Posted by jbyrd63
Looked at the dow man good day to quit.

But white tell me something. I understand it depends on individual stock and a persons portfolio. BUT WHY IS EVERYONES or people I talk to 401K is in the crapper. When it first went to 32,000 everyone was a millionaire LOL SOO now it's back why still massive loses.
Asking for a friend LOL

I wouldn’t say 401K’s are in the crapper, but when you lose $100K in a years time it’s not good.
401K’s aren’t over night get rich schemes, at least mine ain’t. Mines a long term “investment” I hope. If I could increase mine like some of y’all claim, I’d probably have retired early before this past election. I still have another 10 years, give or a take, to let it roll. We’ll see then…

Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703552
10/29/22 12:40 AM
10/29/22 12:40 AM
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 364
Vassar Michigan
trapperEd Offline
trapper
trapperEd  Offline
trapper

Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 364
Vassar Michigan
I sold yesterday, just enough to satisfy the RMD for 2022. I lost some, I should have sold all in January. Only lost a few hundred.
The 401k is not in the crapper either. Wanna Be says it is bad when you lose $100k in a year, back in 2020 I lost $200k in a month (paper loss).
Thought my guts were going to fall out. That was bad.
My oil stock has been great, up $400k and dividends are good. I expect oil to go higher after the election and a downward trend on the rest into 2023.

Win some lose some ....... Just try and offset losses with higher gains. laugh
*


Life member NTA
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703597
10/29/22 04:45 AM
10/29/22 04:45 AM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 9,420
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
trapper
Steven 49er  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: May 2010
Posts: 9,420
mn north of blakely
Originally Posted by jbyrd63
Looked at the dow man good day to quit.

But white tell me something. I understand it depends on individual stock and a persons portfolio. BUT WHY IS EVERYONES or people I talk to 401K is in the crapper. When it first went to 32,000 everyone was a millionaire LOL SOO now it's back why still massive loses.
Asking for a friend LOL



Could be lots of reasons. Ken laid out some solid points, people and more importantly investment firms have weighted heavily into the SP 500, tech stocks were the big gainers for several years. IMHO the SP was way oversold but it's well known I'm contrarian.

Secondly even though the DOW has made some pretty nice gains, it's still 10 12 percent of it's high. But one thing to remember is the indexes are still higher than they were precovid.

I think another reason is people get jumpy and reallocate their money into something less risky in times like these, problem being is they do it after they have a sizeable loss and don't jump back in until the markets are less volatile, so they are unable to recoup their losses as quickly.

Any how, IMHO this melt up will end sometime first quarter of 2023 and I believe we can still see another 20 percent sell off. More so in the SP, I think energy firms will still have legs regardless of the liberal left.

I guess we will have to wait and see.


"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Milton Friedman.
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703622
10/29/22 05:55 AM
10/29/22 05:55 AM
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 2,572
Northern lower Michigan
Feedinggrounds Offline
trapper
Feedinggrounds  Offline
trapper

Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 2,572
Northern lower Michigan
The company making Plumb or Estwing hammers might see some growth. Watching how Paul Pelosi is moving his money next few days, and following his lead.... grin grin whistle


you're only allowed so many sunrises... I aim to see every one of them!
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703795
10/29/22 09:44 AM
10/29/22 09:44 AM
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 3,682
Ohio
S
stinkypete Offline
trapper
stinkypete  Offline
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S

Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 3,682
Ohio
Thanks for the insight White17. Great explanation. Steven 49er. I hope we are done dropping. But you maybe correct. I will just take the upswing for now. We all need some relief laugh.

Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703897
10/29/22 01:27 PM
10/29/22 01:27 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 9,420
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
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Steven 49er  Offline
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Joined: May 2010
Posts: 9,420
mn north of blakely
I hope I'm wrong too.

We are going to find out.


"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Milton Friedman.
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703957
10/29/22 03:17 PM
10/29/22 03:17 PM
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 10,955
Ky
J
jbyrd63 Offline OP
trapper
jbyrd63  Offline OP
trapper
J

Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 10,955
Ky
Nope after midterms "true numbers" will come out and STICK ! BETTER unload anything you aren't looking to hold onto for 4 plus years ! just saying ................

Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703969
10/29/22 03:46 PM
10/29/22 03:46 PM
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 5,809
se South Dakota
NonPCfed Offline
trapper
NonPCfed  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 5,809
se South Dakota
jbryd- Have you ever heard of "swing" trading? A person can make money on the gyrations both going up and down. But a guy has to know how to work the charts. Hold for years works for some, maybe most over the long term, but its also pretty one-dimensional.


"And God said, Let us make man in our image …and let them have dominion …and all the creatures that move along the ground".
Genesis 1:26
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703990
10/29/22 04:28 PM
10/29/22 04:28 PM
Joined: Dec 2020
Posts: 941
Wisconsin
Scott__aR Offline
trapper
Scott__aR  Offline
trapper

Joined: Dec 2020
Posts: 941
Wisconsin
Originally Posted by jbyrd63
Looked at the dow man good day to quit.

But white tell me something. I understand it depends on individual stock and a persons portfolio. BUT WHY IS EVERYONES or people I talk to 401K is in the crapper. When it first went to 32,000 everyone was a millionaire LOL SOO now it's back why still massive loses.
Asking for a friend LOL


Because you are looking at it all wrong ... only two events matter, what you have put in and what you take out! Charts, trends, bulls/bears it all doesn't matter what happens between those two events. Hind sight is always 20/20, would have, should have, could have >> you didn't take action. You didn't gain and you didn't loss until that withdrawal. 401k have rules; you can't withdrawn before 59 without penalty, you can't directly short stocks in a down market, you pay taxes when you withdraw, there are fees to be paid, and the dollar is constantly shrinking. Why do you think those rules are in place?


Megapredator ... top of the food chain!
Member of WTA
Member of MTPCA
Member of NTA
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7703993
10/29/22 04:33 PM
10/29/22 04:33 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 9,420
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
trapper
Steven 49er  Offline
trapper
S

Joined: May 2010
Posts: 9,420
mn north of blakely
The Federal Reserve and their manipulations of interest rates and QE have basically driven the markets since 1987 and totally owned it since 2008.

Not hard to figure what markets will do if the FED stays on it's course and raises rates one or two more times. It's expected the FED will raise rates another 75 basis points next week. After yesterday's PCE report there I don't see how or why they won't.


"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Milton Friedman.
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7704016
10/29/22 05:16 PM
10/29/22 05:16 PM
Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 5,809
se South Dakota
NonPCfed Offline
trapper
NonPCfed  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 5,809
se South Dakota
Quote
Not hard to figure what markets will do if the FED stays on it's course and raises rates one or two more times. It's expected the FED will raise rates another 75 basis points next week. After yesterday's PCE report there I don't see how or why they won't.


Yep, on Wednesday, correct? It sort of funny watching the market and the Fed saying that they are going to raise interest rates for a couple of weeks, but when they actually do, the market goes down.


"And God said, Let us make man in our image …and let them have dominion …and all the creatures that move along the ground".
Genesis 1:26
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7704086
10/29/22 07:11 PM
10/29/22 07:11 PM
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 5,474
western mn
B
bucksnbears Offline
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bucksnbears  Offline
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 5,474
western mn
Why you guys respond to his "click bait" is beyond me.?


swampgas chili and schmidt beer makes for a deadly combo

You have to remember that 1 out of 3 Democratic Voters is just as dumb as the other two.
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: jbyrd63] #7704095
10/29/22 07:24 PM
10/29/22 07:24 PM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 9,420
mn north of blakely
S
Steven 49er Offline
trapper
Steven 49er  Offline
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Joined: May 2010
Posts: 9,420
mn north of blakely
Because, listening to White and KCat is edumacational.


"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Milton Friedman.
Re: Hope you boys sold sold sold today [Re: bucksnbears] #7704102
10/29/22 07:38 PM
10/29/22 07:38 PM
Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 10,955
Ky
J
jbyrd63 Offline OP
trapper
jbyrd63  Offline OP
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J

Joined: Feb 2014
Posts: 10,955
Ky
Originally Posted by bucksnbears
Why you guys respond to his "click bait" is beyond me.?

Why do you reply at all???
You’re not asking a question. Your not saying anything about the topic! So scroll on by if you see my name and don’t waste your electric or time .
Thanks
Have a nice day !

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