Re: Land prices next 12 months?
[Re: Catch22]
#7720599
11/18/22 01:28 AM
11/18/22 01:28 AM
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Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 422 CO
Ringneck1
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trapper
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 422
CO
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Friend of mine, his son is high up in an ag lending bank. He says interest is going to 15 by end of 2023. If that is accurate, things will slow down but there is a ton of cash out there. There have been a couple "no sales" out here, which was common in the 1980's, but uncommon know. Is this the beginning? Imo, yes. But I'm not like some on here that are worldly smart. I know my neck of the woods and 2008 wasn't a bump in land prices, the housing market yes. 1981 or so didn't come close to 1929. The recession in 81 made things uncomfortable, I know my family had to adjust. I personally think we are headed for worse than 29 and I hope I'm wrong and there's a good chance of that lol. I hope some of the in the know, heavy hitters in finance chime in. No expert either. But out here the 80's were a big deal with interest as high as 18%. Wiped lots of guys off the map. The big guys got bigger of course picking up land from the bank or on the courthouse steps. Many land auctions at the time, quite often the auctions had no sales because they couldn't get the minimum bid. Lots of land changed hands after a no sale auction for 50-75% of the auction minimum. I don't think we're their quite yet, but if drought continues? It could get ugly fast.
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Re: Land prices next 12 months?
[Re: Rat Masterson]
#7720755
11/18/22 09:51 AM
11/18/22 09:51 AM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,450 Missouri
ol' dad
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They can pay that for land because they cost average all their land, most farms are generational and most farms are passed down. Now if property taxes were based off of value, say one percent, prices would go down. This is correct. And as far as property taxes that is a whole nother story. Most people do not realize that ag land is already assessed at a much lesser rate than residential or commercial property. Further, assessors base the assessed value off the soil productivity rather than it's actual market value. For example, these farms you here selling for $20,000 an acre are probably only being assessed based on a market value of a few hundred dollars per acre. As such, farmers are really getting a huge break on property taxes. I understand this may be necessary to keep food prices low so I'm not necessarily for or against it. But combined with other government subsidies it does make a non-farmer business owner a bit jealous. Ol dad
"I season my food with hunger"
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Re: Land prices next 12 months?
[Re: bblwi]
#7720757
11/18/22 09:52 AM
11/18/22 09:52 AM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,450 Missouri
ol' dad
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Missouri
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A lot of farm land or any land was bought with cash over the last couple decades so interest rates were not a major factor for many sales. What higher interest rates do is remove a lot of potential buyers that can not pay the higher prices and use borrowed money. That makes the land prices for the cash buyers lower for them also. Huge range in land prices in our area with needing land to feed dairy cattle and apply manure according to the regs. Land is for many a long term investment. Land makes a good diversity investment for those that have monies invested. Just buying a 40 at 8k per acre hoping that you will double or triple your investment is a stretch and also one needs a lot of monies to buy the original 40 unlike buying shares of stock or shares of mutual funds. You can start with almost nothing in todays land market that is not the case.
Bryce Spot on as always! Ol dad
"I season my food with hunger"
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Re: Land prices next 12 months?
[Re: ol' dad]
#7720812
11/18/22 11:05 AM
11/18/22 11:05 AM
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Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 11,181 Armpit, ak
Dirt
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Armpit, ak
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2021 - $500,000 @ 3% x 20 years = $2,772/month 2022 - $500,000 @ 7% x 20 years = $3,876/month, or difference of $1,104 per month, or $264,960 over the course of the loan.
ol' dad Refinance when interest rates drop and then you won't be paying 7% over the course of the loan. I have seen this movie.
Who is John Galt?
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Re: Land prices next 12 months?
[Re: Dirt]
#7720832
11/18/22 12:01 PM
11/18/22 12:01 PM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,450 Missouri
ol' dad
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trapper
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Posts: 1,450
Missouri
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2021 - $500,000 @ 3% x 20 years = $2,772/month 2022 - $500,000 @ 7% x 20 years = $3,876/month, or difference of $1,104 per month, or $264,960 over the course of the loan.
ol' dad Refinance when interest rates drop and then you won't be paying 7% over the course of the loan. I have seen this movie. That is exactly correct but a lot of people who borrow money can't cover the debt service right now with interest rates as high as they are. Two things have to happen either real estate prices come down or interest rates drop. Cash buyers are waiting for deals right now which haven't happened yet. If interest rates don't start to fall you're going to see values declining. Exposure periods are already increasing and list of sale price ratios are starting to widen. Ol dad
"I season my food with hunger"
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Re: Land prices next 12 months?
[Re: Donnersurvivor]
#7721458
11/19/22 07:43 AM
11/19/22 07:43 AM
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Mark June
Unregistered
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Mark June
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We bought lakefront and because the seller at the time was "overwhelmed" by offers in the first 12 hours that the property and house were on the market, the seller adjusted and announced it was "cash buyers only." That cleared the field by 95% we were told. And the bidding began in earnest at that point. For a mere 24 hours before the seller accepted. People are financing more than they belly up with cash, so these higher interest rates will have an effect as intended.
We baby boomers are where the majority of this nation's wealth resides and cash is king right now. I'd like to buy some more land around us, but I'll wait a spell.
Some land goes up. Some goes down. And we move to acquire in those conditions.
Blessings, Mark
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Re: Land prices next 12 months?
[Re: Donnersurvivor]
#7721524
11/19/22 09:31 AM
11/19/22 09:31 AM
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,450 Missouri
ol' dad
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Missouri
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I appreciate all the input. At over 5,000 a ace tillable does not make sense here I'm most cases, this ain't Iowa farm ground though some are willing to pay like it is. How much will that land cash rent for? $150/acre or higher than 5k is worth it. Ol dad
"I season my food with hunger"
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Re: Land prices next 12 months?
[Re: ol' dad]
#7721559
11/19/22 10:21 AM
11/19/22 10:21 AM
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Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 4,574 MN
Donnersurvivor
OP
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OP
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I appreciate all the input. At over 5,000 a ace tillable does not make sense here I'm most cases, this ain't Iowa farm ground though some are willing to pay like it is. How much will that land cash rent for? $150/acre or higher than 5k is worth it. Ol dad Most of its over 5,000 an acre, some far over. We don't have great ground here, lots of gravel and hills with gravel. Let's say I did find a 40 for $5,000 a acre. Put 33% down and financed $133,333 @ 7% interest over 15 years. $1,200 per month payment for $14,400 per year payment. In 15 years I will have spent $280,000 plus taxes and received $90,000 in land rent, not even enough to cover the interest and taxes. Now let's say the next 15 years land rent averages $250 a year, that's $150,000 in income over the next 15 years meaning I still would not be broke even. I would be 70 years old by the time I broke even roughly. Of course the land would be worth more presumably, say $15,000 a acre or $600,000. If I sell the govt is going to take a huge chunk of that and I'll have maybe doubled my money in 30 years. If inflation stays around 2-3% I'll have made around 2% a year. It has to make cents to make sense and current prices do not make sense, they are speculation
Last edited by Donnersurvivor; 11/19/22 10:23 AM.
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