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Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7720582
11/18/22 12:01 AM
11/18/22 12:01 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 21,716
Sandhills Nebraska
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Gary Benson Offline
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Sandhills Nebraska
Yep, same in SE Nebraska. $27,500/acre and the losing bidder was a politician from Lincoln. Herbster.


Life ain't supposed to be easy.
Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Mitch L] #7720594
11/18/22 12:48 AM
11/18/22 12:48 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,338
East-Central Wisconsin
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bblwi Offline
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East-Central Wisconsin
A lot of farm land or any land was bought with cash over the last couple decades so interest rates were not a major factor for many sales. What higher interest rates do is remove a lot of potential buyers that can not pay the higher prices and use borrowed money. That makes the land prices for the cash buyers lower for them also. Huge range in land prices in our area with needing land to feed dairy cattle and apply manure according to the regs.
Land is for many a long term investment. Land makes a good diversity investment for those that have monies invested. Just buying a 40 at 8k per acre hoping that you will double or triple your investment is a stretch and also one needs a lot of monies to buy the original 40 unlike buying shares of stock or shares of mutual funds. You can start with almost nothing in todays land market that is not the case.

Bryce

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Catch22] #7720599
11/18/22 01:28 AM
11/18/22 01:28 AM
Joined: Feb 2018
Posts: 422
CO
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Ringneck1 Offline
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CO
Originally Posted by Catch22
Originally Posted by Ringneck1
Friend of mine, his son is high up in an ag lending bank. He says interest is going to 15 by end of 2023. If that is accurate, things will slow down but there is a ton of cash out there. There have been a couple "no sales" out here, which was common in the 1980's, but uncommon know. Is this the beginning?

Imo, yes. But I'm not like some on here that are worldly smart. I know my neck of the woods and 2008 wasn't a bump in land prices, the housing market yes. 1981 or so didn't come close to 1929. The recession in 81 made things uncomfortable, I know my family had to adjust. I personally think we are headed for worse than 29 and I hope I'm wrong and there's a good chance of that lol. I hope some of the in the know, heavy hitters in finance chime in.


No expert either. But out here the 80's were a big deal with interest as high as 18%. Wiped lots of guys off the map. The big guys got bigger of course picking up land from the bank or on the courthouse steps. Many land auctions at the time, quite often the auctions had no sales because they couldn't get the minimum bid. Lots of land changed hands after a no sale auction for 50-75% of the auction minimum. I don't think we're their quite yet, but if drought continues? It could get ugly fast.

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7720733
11/18/22 09:15 AM
11/18/22 09:15 AM
Joined: Jan 2014
Posts: 2,100
NW MO
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TurkeyTime Offline
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NW MO
A drop in prices will take Mother Nature and a really hard drop in the economy. People that do not have to own land (make a living) would need to make decisions in order to keep up with their standard of living.

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: T-Rex] #7720750
11/18/22 09:38 AM
11/18/22 09:38 AM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 63,017
Minnesota
330-Trapper Offline

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330-Trapper  Offline

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Posts: 63,017
Minnesota
Originally Posted by T-Rex
I recently sold mine for about $110,000 per acre. That, assuming it actually goes through.

It is for development, and "an offer you can't refuse".

On the one hand I would like to stay rather than sell.

On the other hand, I ain't so sure I would get along with 600 new property owners squeezing me from two sides.

shocked


NRA and NTA Life Member
www.BackroadsRevised@etsy.com




Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7720751
11/18/22 09:39 AM
11/18/22 09:39 AM
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 3,987
South Dakota
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Rat Masterson Offline
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South Dakota
They can pay that for land because they cost average all their land, most farms are generational and most farms are passed down. Now if property taxes were based off of value, say one percent, prices would go down.

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Rat Masterson] #7720755
11/18/22 09:51 AM
11/18/22 09:51 AM
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,450
Missouri
ol' dad Offline
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ol' dad  Offline
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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,450
Missouri
Originally Posted by Rat Masterson
They can pay that for land because they cost average all their land, most farms are generational and most farms are passed down. Now if property taxes were based off of value, say one percent, prices would go down.



This is correct. And as far as property taxes that is a whole nother story. Most people do not realize that ag land is already assessed at a much lesser rate than residential or commercial property. Further, assessors base the assessed value off the soil productivity rather than it's actual market value. For example, these farms you here selling for $20,000 an acre are probably only being assessed based on a market value of a few hundred dollars per acre. As such, farmers are really getting a huge break on property taxes. I understand this may be necessary to keep food prices low so I'm not necessarily for or against it. But combined with other government subsidies it does make a non-farmer business owner a bit jealous.

Ol dad


"I season my food with hunger"
Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: bblwi] #7720757
11/18/22 09:52 AM
11/18/22 09:52 AM
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,450
Missouri
ol' dad Offline
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Posts: 1,450
Missouri
Originally Posted by bblwi
A lot of farm land or any land was bought with cash over the last couple decades so interest rates were not a major factor for many sales. What higher interest rates do is remove a lot of potential buyers that can not pay the higher prices and use borrowed money. That makes the land prices for the cash buyers lower for them also. Huge range in land prices in our area with needing land to feed dairy cattle and apply manure according to the regs.
Land is for many a long term investment. Land makes a good diversity investment for those that have monies invested. Just buying a 40 at 8k per acre hoping that you will double or triple your investment is a stretch and also one needs a lot of monies to buy the original 40 unlike buying shares of stock or shares of mutual funds. You can start with almost nothing in todays land market that is not the case.

Bryce


Spot on as always!

Ol dad


"I season my food with hunger"
Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: ol' dad] #7720812
11/18/22 11:05 AM
11/18/22 11:05 AM
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 11,181
Armpit, ak
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Dirt Offline
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Armpit, ak
Originally Posted by ol' dad
2021 - $500,000 @ 3% x 20 years = $2,772/month
2022 - $500,000 @ 7% x 20 years = $3,876/month, or difference of $1,104 per month, or $264,960 over the course of the loan.

ol' dad


Refinance when interest rates drop and then you won't be paying 7% over the course of the loan. I have seen this movie.


Who is John Galt?
Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7720815
11/18/22 11:12 AM
11/18/22 11:12 AM
Joined: May 2010
Posts: 361
Iowa
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Posts: 361
Iowa
you think the people in arizona that are running out of water and ranchers having to sell off cattle is seeing higher prices i wish i would have taken the money i spent on my place 50 years ago and put it in guns i would be very wealthy today and a lot less owner expenses and up keep like i said one day at a time

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Dirt] #7720832
11/18/22 12:01 PM
11/18/22 12:01 PM
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,450
Missouri
ol' dad Offline
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Missouri
Originally Posted by Dirt
Originally Posted by ol' dad
2021 - $500,000 @ 3% x 20 years = $2,772/month
2022 - $500,000 @ 7% x 20 years = $3,876/month, or difference of $1,104 per month, or $264,960 over the course of the loan.

ol' dad


Refinance when interest rates drop and then you won't be paying 7% over the course of the loan. I have seen this movie.



That is exactly correct but a lot of people who borrow money can't cover the debt service right now with interest rates as high as they are. Two things have to happen either real estate prices come down or interest rates drop. Cash buyers are waiting for deals right now which haven't happened yet. If interest rates don't start to fall you're going to see values declining. Exposure periods are already increasing and list of sale price ratios are starting to widen.

Ol dad



"I season my food with hunger"
Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7720840
11/18/22 12:12 PM
11/18/22 12:12 PM
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 11,338
East-Central Wisconsin
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bblwi Offline
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East-Central Wisconsin
I did tax work and financial planning for farmers for a bit over 30 years. Yes the taxes paid on bare farm land or ag land is extremely low in WI compared to recreational land or other property. This has shifted the taxes to schools, roads, volunteer fire departments, security etc. to home owners and owners of recreational land. I don't know the exact figures now but a person who owns say a wooded 40 for hunting that sells for 3K will pay 2 to 3 times the owner of an ag 40 that sells for 9 K. I think we will see some stabilization or actual drop in land prices arouond our area due to the fact that farmers here are dairy farmers and have huge investments in cattle, buildings, machinery, equipment and feed and manure storage and therefore much more likely to carry considerable debt to be able to own and operate these larger farm businesses.

Bryce

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7721210
11/18/22 08:50 PM
11/18/22 08:50 PM
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 3,626
North central Iowa
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Bob_Iowa Offline
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North central Iowa
Here I think prices will stay about where they’re at we have a small group of people with a lot of money and are investing in land and they don’t seem to be slowing down and they bid against each other, taxes here are rising like every where else.

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7721427
11/19/22 06:53 AM
11/19/22 06:53 AM
Joined: Jul 2016
Posts: 2,760
Wisconsin
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Bear Tracker Offline
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Posts: 2,760
Wisconsin
North Central WI, Auction and old gent passed his farm land sold for $4250.00 acre that is crazy for our rocky, swampy and but this was pretty good stuff. Still way high by our standards. Buy Dirt God ain't making nay more of it!

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7721443
11/19/22 07:15 AM
11/19/22 07:15 AM
Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 2,463
Tug Hill, NY
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Squash Offline
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Tug Hill, NY
Roadside timberland in my area is being harvested , then subdivided and sold for $3000- $5000/ acre. No shortage of city recreationalists who own a snowmobile or ATV. My real estate agent friend , told me, the 1st question asked, is where is the ATV/snowmobile trail ?

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7721458
11/19/22 07:43 AM
11/19/22 07:43 AM

M
Mark June
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Mark June
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We bought lakefront and because the seller at the time was "overwhelmed" by offers in the first 12 hours that the property and house were on the market, the seller adjusted and announced it was "cash buyers only." That cleared the field by 95% we were told. And the bidding began in earnest at that point. For a mere 24 hours before the seller accepted.
People are financing more than they belly up with cash, so these higher interest rates will have an effect as intended.

We baby boomers are where the majority of this nation's wealth resides and cash is king right now.
I'd like to buy some more land around us, but I'll wait a spell.

Some land goes up. Some goes down. And we move to acquire in those conditions.

Blessings,
Mark

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7721461
11/19/22 07:58 AM
11/19/22 07:58 AM
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 4,574
MN
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Donnersurvivor Offline OP
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MN
I appreciate all the input. At over 5,000 a ace tillable does not make sense here I'm most cases, this ain't Iowa farm ground though some are willing to pay like it is.

Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7721485
11/19/22 08:31 AM
11/19/22 08:31 AM
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,861
Greene County,Virginia
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run Offline
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Greene County,Virginia
If only land was $5,000 per acre in my neighborhood. I would be in hog heaven.

Last edited by run; 11/19/22 08:32 AM.

wanna be goat farmer.
Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: Donnersurvivor] #7721524
11/19/22 09:31 AM
11/19/22 09:31 AM
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 1,450
Missouri
ol' dad Offline
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Missouri
Originally Posted by Donnersurvivor
I appreciate all the input. At over 5,000 a ace tillable does not make sense here I'm most cases, this ain't Iowa farm ground though some are willing to pay like it is.



How much will that land cash rent for? $150/acre or higher than 5k is worth it.

Ol dad


"I season my food with hunger"
Re: Land prices next 12 months? [Re: ol' dad] #7721559
11/19/22 10:21 AM
11/19/22 10:21 AM
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 4,574
MN
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Donnersurvivor Offline OP
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MN
Originally Posted by ol' dad
Originally Posted by Donnersurvivor
I appreciate all the input. At over 5,000 a ace tillable does not make sense here I'm most cases, this ain't Iowa farm ground though some are willing to pay like it is.



How much will that land cash rent for? $150/acre or higher than 5k is worth it.

Ol dad


Most of its over 5,000 an acre, some far over. We don't have great ground here, lots of gravel and hills with gravel.

Let's say I did find a 40 for $5,000 a acre. Put 33% down and financed $133,333 @ 7% interest over 15 years. $1,200 per month payment for $14,400 per year payment. In 15 years I will have spent $280,000 plus taxes and received $90,000 in land rent, not even enough to cover the interest and taxes.

Now let's say the next 15 years land rent averages $250 a year, that's $150,000 in income over the next 15 years meaning I still would not be broke even.

I would be 70 years old by the time I broke even roughly. Of course the land would be worth more presumably, say $15,000 a acre or $600,000. If I sell the govt is going to take a huge chunk of that and I'll have maybe doubled my money in 30 years. If inflation stays around 2-3% I'll have made around 2% a year.

It has to make cents to make sense and current prices do not make sense, they are speculation

Last edited by Donnersurvivor; 11/19/22 10:23 AM.
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