Any of you financial wizards have any predictions ? I know how Glen Beck and Alex Jones think its going to play out and im not convinced they are wrong....not looking good anyway.

https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2...-digest-markets-humiliate-jerome-powell/

No predictions but I certainly think that Breitbart article is way off the mark. I listened to Powell's speech live ....and I am sure he was talking about the major US banks in general.

The Pac West situation may end up in a law suit against the Financial Times because it SEEMS they MAY have printed some bogus conclusions that are not supported by the data.

The TD merger with First Horizon was called off due to regulatory timing........Feds taking so long to make a decision that the economics of the deal have deteriorated. It was a mutual decision between the two banks.


It seems to me that a lot of the issues with regional banks have to do with businesses keeping amounts greater than 250K in their accounts. That is perfectly understandable because that's a pretty small amount to try to keep meeting payroll and accounts payable on even a small business today.

So I believe what may be happening is a lot of businesses with more than 250K in UNINSURED deposits are moving them or at least part of them so they are covered by FDIC or into money markets where the return is better and still instantly liquid. Of course that hurts the banks that are losing those deposits.

I don't think Powell is going to change course. I sure hope not.

As far as Beck & Jones are concerned I wouldn't put any credibility there.


One thing the article doesn't address is that there are undoubtedly short sellers all over these regional banks. Ackman may in fact be one of them. I am sure that is what, in part, led to the trading halt today in PacWest.

His proposal that the Fed and Treasury "should" back up all depositors certainly will restore confidence.........but it's a terrible idea because it creates to moral hazard in the long run and puts the tax payer on the hook to backstop deposits.

These few stocks may have dropped considerably in the past couple days but the ETF's ( KRE & KBE) do not reflect anything nearly that bad.

My 2 cents

ISM points to slowdown, is 46.4%. Below 45% indicates recession. The ISM indicator provides valuable insights into the state of the U.S. economy, as the manufacturing sector is a critical component of the economy. The indicator is based on several key components, including new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventories. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Commercial credit collapsing due to empty commercial buildings.
Regional banks in trouble due to holding low interest treasuries that cannot cover deposits.
Real income declining due to year over year inflation out of control.
Yield curve inverted.
Consumer confidence at low point.
Crude oil dropping even after OPEX cut production.
Labor market weakening.
Capital market weakening with guidance for profits lowering.
Dollar weakening.
Credit market on the verge of collapse.

What do you think?

Good list ! Commercial real estate is becoming a real problem. I seem the remember reading somewhere that PacWest was a big investor in commercial property

I dont know what to think but it seems like its being done on purpose. I do believe the Fed Now program will be directly tied to the CBDCs they are pushing. Maybe they want to weaken the monetary system so it will seem like the CBDCs are going to save us ? You hit some of the points Elon Musk did in a recent interview.

Didn't O'bummer sign a executive order sometime around '08 that basically said that when these banks fail, the FDIC insurance of $250,000 could be paid back not in $$, but in bank stock?

Also, don't they have up to a year to pay any form of compensation back?

I don't see those two things tied to each other at all. The only CBDC that the fed is currently interested in is for use between financial institutions to facilitate cross-border transactions.


A retail CBDC would require an act of Congress. I don't see that happening in our lifetimes

I hope your right but I think your wrong.

CBDC is the government telling and mandating us what is good for us and our money, no different than when they told us what was good for our health with C-19 jabs. Many believed them and still do. Freedom is at stake and many are fine with it all.