Gathering opinions on whether the market is going to go down again do to this war?

Maybe Blame County with chime in , with his .02 cents.

In the famous words of JP Morgan........."It will fluctuate".

The Chinese having been doing great in early 2026...exports up 6.3% from a year earlier. I imagine that has a lot to do with how bullish the Chinese have been on buying luxury goods this spring. Thats the good news anyway. Stay tuned to what high energy costs do to the world economy and how much that puts a damper on Chinese exports.

When the Whitehouse says gas prices will go down quickly after we attain our goals with this war, well...call me very skeptical.

iT WILL GO UP 'TILL IT DOESN'T

It will do the opposite of what I do, if I sell local, auction will be better and vice-versa.

Long term . I’ve watched countless people day trade a 401k trying to beat the system and they lost their shirts

I may be wrong in this, but if I buy during a dip like last year during the tariff decline, I can make 4 to 5 % in a month prior to my long term gain of 10% or so a year after the buy? Seems like a reasonable thing to attempt?

It MIGHT be reasonable depending on how you do it.

If you are just buying long shares on the dip I would not be confident of a 5% return in a month. I would be more confident about the 10% gain in a year.

I have a friend in his early eighties, who spends most of his time on politics and the stock market. He makes and loses money on the many stocks he trades all the time, basically just breaking even. He buys and sells many times a day. He will get up a whole lot and then goes down pretty much the same amount. He's not very good at it, but he enjoys it. It's basically a constant hobby rather than a income earner.

My youngest brother studies and watches a lot, but seldom buys or sells. He usually makes several hundred thousand dollars in gains a year. It's not his main source of income, but he treats it seriously.

I don't own even a single share of stock

Keith

Shoot, you guys are talking stock market when I thought this was about the fur market.

I'm actually looking at a mutual fund that basically performs like one of the indexes.

That's kind of what I figured you might be doing.
So lets say you wanted to use something like SPY or VOO to trade the index

With VOO closing around 630 today it would need to close around 661 32 days from now, for a 5% gain.

Since VOO and SPY are based on SPX that means that SPX would need to close at about 7229 a month from now for a 5% gain.
The probability of that happening is 16.7 %.

That is not a bet I would take

Well that would be why I'm wondering if we are headed for another 3 or 4 % drop? I'm late to the bus again.

There are other ways to go about it that are a little safer. Are you trying to do this directly with a mutual fund family or in a brokerage account ?

Going to buy on Fidelity. Don't know if I can put in a Buy at this price or not?

I don't know if if you can use a GTC ( good till cancelled) order with Fidelity when buying direct. Is it an actual fund or an ETF that you're wanting to buy ? If you are trying to buy VOO or SPY etc..they should allow it.

So I'm guessing it is a Fidelity brokerage account.

Youre too old for mutual funds.
Good for younger people with long term plans.
You should be trading mining stocks,but you need good inside info for those.
Do you know a lot of prospectors
Lots of people got rich here when they got in early on the Hemlo.
I advised my son in law to buy up some canada nickle stock.It aint doing much now but will take off once the nickle starts coming out the ground in a couple years.
I spend my money now-too old for that investment stuff.

Yes.

Well there ya go. Usually they are good for 6 months and then the broker will cancel if not executed by that time.

The dip before the “Deadline” has been about as predictable as you can get,,,recently. Lol

But market is figuring that out

There will be another dip before the next “Deadline”

Probably not as deep,,,,,

Each time, the threats have to get more wild to have the same effect

Last one was pretty wild

I figured the market would react a little more to Trump's blockade of the blockade. But apparently the market had zero craps to give, lol.

I may have misinformed? I have money sitting in Spaxx and am personally going make a buy on the website when the price is right. New to this and am not sure I can personally make an offer at a future price if it gets there.

Please remember Stock market language is not my primary language.

My other funds were at edward jones and a broker was putting in a buy at this price order.

Sorry my terminology is incorrect.

Got it. Well Fidelity does have a brokerage arm. You might consider just making a lateral move of some funds from SPAXX to the brokerage side. At that point you could enter an order to buy XYZ @ $$$ GTC

If Fidelity is like other fund outfits their brokerage accounts will include a linked money market account.
That might be the simplest thing to do that gives you max flexibility

EDIT: it looks like SPAXX is the default linked MM account for Fidelity brokerage accounts.
Call 'em and tell them you want a brokerage account with identical registration as your current SPAXX account. Then move some funds to the brokerage account.

Easy peasy

I think the direction of the market depends on Trumps actions. Right now that says downward but he is unpredictable. I have a bunch of money coming out of a closed end fund in June and right now I am leaning towards precious metals. Stocks seem risky right now with a recession looming IMO.

Om stocks and etf you can place orders to buy at market price or At limit price. Then you choose how long for it to last. Tell the end of the day or good tell canceled. Im not sure how long but I suspect its 6 months it will keep the order before canceling it.

. I prefer ETF's exchange traded funds over mutual funds. They trade like stocks and you can sell them any time you want not just at the close of business and the index etf seem to have lower fes and expence ratios.

My money market account can also trade. I only use that one to hold transfer cash i put in my wifes roth though so never used it to do any trading.

So far i like there platform. I have several accounts. My current 401, roth for myself and one for my wife, a traditional IRA, money market or cash savings account. Planing on opening custodial roths for the boys. My daughter also has a roth with them. Its much more convenient than dealing with our Edward Jones accounts.

Huh? A 401 for your wife ?? You lost me there. How does your wife have a 401K if she does not work?

Not sure about 401, but a non working spouse can open either a traditional or a roth Ira with no income as long as they file jointly. Spousal Ira. One spouse must have earned enough to contribute and be within the income limits.

I have never tried to time the market.The best way for me to "time" the market has been to "stay" in the market. We will see our financial planner next week Monday. We may make some changes in our investment portfolio and plans, based on our recent move, our age and how much risk we are willing to take as we are in our late 70s.

Bryce

Huh? A 401 for your wife ?? You lost me there. How does your wife have a 401K if she does not work?
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I got sloppy and mind over ran my typing. I fund a roth for her not a 401. Good night I couldn't afford to fund a 401 to the limit for her im doing good to hit the roth limits for both if our roths and my 401 roth limit along with additional 8 to 10 % after tax tha last few years. I dont think its going to happen this year im not going to make enough money. Health is going to crap so not able to work as much.

Probably should be buying now and for some time. The pattern of about three years up and one down with the current period down so it appears to be here.
Jim

so we where talking about this at my local trapping council meeting and with 100% clearances and most buyers looking for more at the last auction we can only see similar or higher prices at the next auction and sense most fake fur is made out of polyester which comes from petroleum products we may see companies turn back to fur,

Well, dirt, sounds like you got lined out with your investments, have the rest of the people replying on here got ya lined out on what to do with your furs, LOL.

What furs? Everything is sold. I learned some stuff. A few people understood what I was trying to do. The question really was do people see another big war related dip coming soon. Maybe the panicking is over?

I was just chuckling about the fur market replies on here.

I think it's impossible to guess whether or not there will be another significant dip. Trump is so unpredictable, who can know what will happen from day to day? It certainly would not surprise me to see one.......

My favorite post was Boco’s assumption. The investors are children under 10.

Well I did invest when I was in my 20s and made enough off bonds at that time when the rates were 18% to pull it out and buy a house when I was 30.
All the extra money that I dont need since then went to my kids (not when they were 10) to invest as they see fit since it would be theirs anyway when I tip over.
I dont want to check out with a big hoard that people will fight over and most of it ultimately wind up in the lawyers pockets.
They can fight over my traplines if they want them.