Gathering opinions on whether the market is going to go down again do to this war?

Maybe Blame County with chime in , with his .02 cents.

In the famous words of JP Morgan........."It will fluctuate".

The Chinese having been doing great in early 2026...exports up 6.3% from a year earlier. I imagine that has a lot to do with how bullish the Chinese have been on buying luxury goods this spring. Thats the good news anyway. Stay tuned to what high energy costs do to the world economy and how much that puts a damper on Chinese exports.

When the Whitehouse says gas prices will go down quickly after we attain our goals with this war, well...call me very skeptical.

iT WILL GO UP 'TILL IT DOESN'T

It will do the opposite of what I do, if I sell local, auction will be better and vice-versa.

Long term . I’ve watched countless people day trade a 401k trying to beat the system and they lost their shirts

I may be wrong in this, but if I buy during a dip like last year during the tariff decline, I can make 4 to 5 % in a month prior to my long term gain of 10% or so a year after the buy? Seems like a reasonable thing to attempt?

It MIGHT be reasonable depending on how you do it.

If you are just buying long shares on the dip I would not be confident of a 5% return in a month. I would be more confident about the 10% gain in a year.

I have a friend in his early eighties, who spends most of his time on politics and the stock market. He makes and loses money on the many stocks he trades all the time, basically just breaking even. He buys and sells many times a day. He will get up a whole lot and then goes down pretty much the same amount. He's not very good at it, but he enjoys it. It's basically a constant hobby rather than a income earner.

My youngest brother studies and watches a lot, but seldom buys or sells. He usually makes several hundred thousand dollars in gains a year. It's not his main source of income, but he treats it seriously.

I don't own even a single share of stock

Keith

Shoot, you guys are talking stock market when I thought this was about the fur market.

I'm actually looking at a mutual fund that basically performs like one of the indexes.

That's kind of what I figured you might be doing.
So lets say you wanted to use something like SPY or VOO to trade the index

With VOO closing around 630 today it would need to close around 661 32 days from now, for a 5% gain.

Since VOO and SPY are based on SPX that means that SPX would need to close at about 7229 a month from now for a 5% gain.
The probability of that happening is 16.7 %.

That is not a bet I would take

Well that would be why I'm wondering if we are headed for another 3 or 4 % drop? I'm late to the bus again.

There are other ways to go about it that are a little safer. Are you trying to do this directly with a mutual fund family or in a brokerage account ?

Going to buy on Fidelity. Don't know if I can put in a Buy at this price or not?

I don't know if if you can use a GTC ( good till cancelled) order with Fidelity when buying direct. Is it an actual fund or an ETF that you're wanting to buy ? If you are trying to buy VOO or SPY etc..they should allow it.

So I'm guessing it is a Fidelity brokerage account.

Youre too old for mutual funds.
Good for younger people with long term plans.
You should be trading mining stocks,but you need good inside info for those.
Do you know a lot of prospectors
Lots of people got rich here when they got in early on the Hemlo.
I advised my son in law to buy up some canada nickle stock.It aint doing much now but will take off once the nickle starts coming out the ground in a couple years.
I spend my money now-too old for that investment stuff.

Yes.

Well there ya go. Usually they are good for 6 months and then the broker will cancel if not executed by that time.