Someone just sent me this. I don't know if it's legit or just BS. Figured I'd ask the experts. Lol

Ol dad

RAN'S WELLS ARE SHUTTING IN TODAY.
AND THE DAMAGE IS PERMANENT.

SHUT IN means exactly what it sounds like.

You close the valve. The well stops producing. You plan to restart it later.

But "later" requires the well to survive being shut in.

That's where Iran has a catastrophic problem.

Here's how the math worked out:

Kharg Island handles 90%+ of Iran's crude exports. With Hormuz blockaded since April 13, crude kept flowing in with nowhere to go. 13 million barrels of spare tank space. 1.0–1.1 million barrels per day of inflow.

Analysts project storage hits capacity today, April 26. The wells are coming offline now.

The problem: Iran's fields aren't modern. They're 40–50 years old and fully dependent on WATER INJECTION to function. Water is pumped underground to push oil toward the surface and hold reservoir pressure.

When you SHUT IN those wells, the pressure balance breaks.

Water migrates upward into the oil-bearing rock. This is called WATER CONING.

Once water invades the oil zone, it permanently traps crude in the pores of the rock. When the well restarts, it produces water instead of oil.

That oil is not coming back 100%.
(edit: without reworking or servicing. Taking time, labor & money)

Add gas cap formation, paraffin plugging, asphaltene deposition.

Industry standard after a prolonged SHUT IN: 20–30% permanent productivity loss per well.

The Foundation for Defense of Democracies estimates Iran will permanently lose 300,000–500,000 bpd of production capacity.

That's $11–18 billion in annual revenue.

Not gone for the duration of the war.
Gone for years after.

Iran was already declining at 5–8% per year before any of this. Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes largely locked out since 2012, fully since 2018.

No Western oilfield services to fix what's being broken right now.

Bloomberg reported today: Hormuz traffic is "virtually impossible for the first time in history." Five ships transited April 24 versus 140 per day pre-war.

Even if a ceasefire were signed tomorrow: mine clearance takes 60–90 days minimum .

Well restart takes 4–6 months minimum.

Iran's Central Bank is projecting 180% inflation and a 12-year reconstruction window.

This isn't a war pause.

This is structural, permanent damage to one of the world's major oil producers. The physics of reservoir damage doesn't care about ceasefires.

The oil trapped by WATER CONING today stays trapped whether this war ends next week or next year.

What do you think happens to global oil supply when 300,000–500,000 bpd never comes back?

What's the source? My guess is theres probably a small amount of truth in there but it reads like propaganda. And not that good of propaganda at that.

That is why I purchased an electric car.
Gas will always come out of the wall.?

I know several higher up oil men and I asked this same question. This is basically what they said the long down the higher the risk for damage.

Iran’s forced shut‑ins can cause permanent damage to its oil fields, and multiple recent analyses warn that this risk is unusually high under current conditions. The degree of damage depends on geology, reservoir pressure management, and how long wells remain shut.

Why Iran’s shut‑ins are especially risky
Aging fractured carbonate reservoirs
Iran’s major fields (Ahvaz, Marun, Gachsaran, Bibi Hakimeh) are fractured carbonate systems that rely heavily on water injection to maintain pressure. When wells are shut in, pressure balance collapses and water encroaches into oil zones, potentially stranding oil permanently.

Cross‑flow between layers
Many Iranian wells produce from stacked zones. When shut in, fluids can migrate between layers, allowing water to invade productive intervals without surface warning. This can permanently reduce recovery.

Paraffin and solids buildup
Shut‑ins allow wax, asphaltenes, and sediments to settle in the wellbore and reservoir pores. Restarting requires costly cleanouts, and some wells may never return to prior flow rates.

Limited access to modern restart technology
Years of sanctions mean Iran lacks the equipment and chemical treatments needed to manage large‑scale restarts, increasing the chance that shut‑ins lead to long‑term impairment.

How severe could the damage be?
Analysts warn that forced shut‑ins could cause irreversible loss of up to ~500,000 barrels/day of capacity.

Some wells could become uneconomic or permanently damaged after only days to weeks of shut‑in due to pressure collapse and water/gas intrusion.

Is permanent damage guaranteed?
Not necessarily. Iran has shut in production in past decades without catastrophic loss, and some experts argue that not all fields will suffer permanent harm if managed carefully. However, the current situation is different because:

shut‑ins are forced, not planned;

storage is nearly full, leaving no flexibility;

the fields are older and more pressure‑sensitive;

sanctions limit Iran’s ability to perform proper well interventions.

This means the risk of permanent damage is significantly higher than in previous shutdowns.

I've heard similar..but I'm no oil man....

Like most things, probably..."it depends", lol

Snowy is that an AI generated response

Time for all the townies to buy a tesla.
I might buy one for road trips and keep a couple gas pick ups for getting out and back to the trapline hauling bikes and skidoos..
My son has a tesla,sure is cheap and fun to drive.

Yep! But exactly in different wording came from two high up in the company oil man that I'm good friends with. All stated is factual of what these two oil said.

Would depend on who’s doing it … not sure how competent the sand people are

Tesla… I’m going to invest in a few more bicycles and possible a E bike

No worries for Iran, they will just let wells them run all over, it's what they do all the time run all over, they are great at it, everything they do run all over !!

UAE will more than make up the difference now that they have announced they are leaving OPEC.

From another source: "Before the Iran war, the UAE was OPEC’s third-largest oil producer, accounting for 3.6 million barrels per day, or 12% of the group’s total output. The country now aims to produce 5 million barrels per day by 2027."

My first thought was, "why don't they just pump it out on the ground?"

This is my take on it as well. The UAE has announced it is leaving OPEC as of May 1 this year. The primary reason is the limits OPEC put on it's oil production. I believe they see an opportunity here to fill the void left by Iran's declining production and make a lot of dirham.

It is probable some well damage will occur. Most of it can be reversed with properly designed workovers. Nothing would prevent Iran from drilling new wells. If we are unwilling to help, I am sure China or Russia would be glad to. Some of the same arguments were offered when Kuwait's wells were opened and set on fire.

i proofread and edited the above post. I would like to add, the instability in OPEC is a direct result of our burgeoning oil production. We would be living in a very different world if the Permian and Williston basins were at 90's level production.

We shut in wells all the time. Lots of times due to access they only run them in winter. I would think they got service rigs, swab rigs coil tubing rigs over there.

Halliburton/ schlumberger more than likely over there.

They are both still in the ME but not operating in Iran. SLB quit this year and HAL quit years ago

…. I used to work for slb…. Laid me off after I refused to go to China and Colombia