2008 was one year. Stagflation in the 70's and 80's was close to a decade. I lived through both, I believe the early non Qe fixed one was much worse. Dairy farmers probably did o k back then with all the government price supports.

LOL Savell, you obviously didn't listen to anything I said. I told you I was not a fan of importing menial laborers just because they work cheaper. I saw the same thing happen in western NY decades before it happened in donner's neck of the woods.

But I am still confused on how people were able to work their way up to OWNING the farm.....

Yote30. Not wanting to speak for Donner, but I believe what he is referring to is generational farms. Where the farm was passed from Father to another family member. Was not that long ago that a family could do ok 50 cows and a couple hundred acres. However once the bigger operations start growing it becomes a domino effect, and they need to get bigger and bigger. At a certain point they get to be so big that they have no competition. Real hard for a younger person to try to compete, and get started. Younger guy needs to "borrow " to even get started, and big operator needs to "spend" so he doesn't have to pay taxes. G.

Yes, generational farms that were bankrupted by cheap labor on massive farms. It was also realistic to make a living with 30 cows on a 160, a guy could buy into that and make it work. That's pretty much gone, all the rural families along with it

A lot of the things pointed out by others are exactly what our youngest and his fiancée are utilizing. They both have chosen a field that is pretty secure. They are moving away from the area to make the money necessary to start a family. The world is still an oyster, opening it depends on the tools you obtained.

and your WILLINGNESS to pursue your goals.

lol….yeah, that too.

Does anybody actually believe a job report anymore?

If you don't mind my asking what career field is your youngest employed in.

In my opinion, if AI stays on its current track nothing is secure to a degree.

His degree is in computer science. He is currently writing programs for a local company…..and yes, that includes at times the use of ai……which he enjoys finding the flaws in it. lol

Two really good quotes also right now in the ag world lending money is almost non existent, I’ve just gone through this situation, banks in the ag world are hurting which makes things harder.

Judging from Friday, apparently the market still does, lol.

The hey day of dairy price supports






A Legacy of Government Intervention
The MAMGB proposal follows a long history of interventions, starting with the first significant federal effort to address milk surpluses in 1984-1985 with the USDA-Administered Milk Diversion Program. Responding to a surge in surplus dairy product purchases that cost USDA $2.7 billion in 1983, Congress enacted a temporary program. Farmers were paid $10 per cwt. to reduce their milk marketings by 5% to 30%, funded by a farmer assessment.

While $955 million was paid out and milk production was reduced by an estimated 3.74 to 4.11 billion pounds in 1984, the program suffered from “adverse selection” and “moral hazard” issues. Many participants had already reduced production, and non-participants expanded, leading to no measurable impact on national average milk price or overall production trends. Milk supply quickly rebounded, prompting further intervention.

This led to the more drastic 1986-1987 Milk Buyout Program (Dairy Termination Program - DTP), part of the 1985 farm bill. The goal was ambitious: Reduce U.S. milk production by 12 billion pounds annually by paying farmers to permanently exit production. Approximately 15,000 farmers accepted bids, removing about 1.55 million cows at a cost of $1.8 billion. However, like its predecessor, the DTP faced “free-rider” problems; non-participating farms increased their output, offsetting the intended reduction. While growth remained flat, national milk production did not decline as significantly as intended.

“The Dairy Termination Program, or Whole Herd Buyout, legislated in the 1985 farm bill, was a response to the now discontinued dairy price support program that had ratcheted milk prices to a level that was generating very costly surpluses of government dairy product purchases under the program,” says Peter Vitaliano, long-time chief economist of the National Milk Producers Federation. “Our analysis suggests that DTP and support price reductions during 1986-90 have proven to be a cost-effective means of reducing the quantity and expense of government purchases under the price support program.”


This is how my Father in law got his family out of the dairy business,

A good jobs report and a low unemployment report and a increasing inflation report equals no fed rate cut and no reason not to raise rates, Cautious investors will move money to the market if fixed investment rates get too low and investors will move money or keep money from the market if fixed rates remain attractive. It happened in 2022/2023.

Bob Just recently had a conversation with my local small town banker. Basically his thoughts were we haven"t even seen "To big to fail". He said for better or worse they are attached to the big operators. If there is a bad year or two for them,by getting so big there are no small farmers that would be able to step in and pick up the pieces. All the small equipment was sold as scrap iron and most of the farms had acreages sold off and someone else bought the farm ground. I work in town and on the eleven mile trip in on gravel roads no one in that trip is an active farmer. Most are small acreages, and the ones that aren't are older people that rented their acres to bigger guys. G.

Job reports and inflation reports?

All lies. Every job report from 22 and 23 has been revised down. Flat out fabrications

Angela I've worked in ND, and KS and MN doing what I do.

I'll take MN over the other 3. The wages are better here. enough to offset any tax savings and there are plenty of good jobs available here in the trades.

I hear it all the time from guys who say they are moving after they retire. When asked why not move before it's always the same answer

Donner, graduating in 2008 was a great time to start in the job market. Sure it may have been slow for a.couple years but it's been fantastic since about 2012. Add in artificially low rates for over a decade and a booming stock market there was ample opportunities to grow wealth.

There is going to be even more for younger guys with a solid work ethic. The baby boomers are starting to retire and the beginning of the gen xers aren't far away. A guy that isn't afraid of work, decent head on his shoulders, can pass a drug test and some leadership traits will be able to find a good job any where.

The one caveat iso to speak s AI and how many jobs it will take away. It's going to be substantial IMHO. I could wrong. It could also create enough in other areas to offset those jobs as long as we aren't like the dairy farmers and see it coming.

I've been lucky if one wants to call it that. I have some good young men under thirty working for me. They are not afraid to work hours and are good with their money. They own houses, cars, have children and money in the bank. For the most part they avoid the traps the modern economy has set for them. They live on a budget and within their means.

The whole stinkin flimsy pile of cards is about ready to implode.

Most likely

I'm the last of the baby boomers. Most have already retired. Proubly close to half are dead.