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Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: OhioBoy] #8635750
Yesterday at 09:04 PM
Yesterday at 09:04 PM
Joined: Jan 2012
Ohio, 48yo
OhioBoy Offline OP
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OhioBoy  Offline OP
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Joined: Jan 2012
Ohio, 48yo
This is a crazy video but it explains the structure of iran and i hadnt heard that yet…

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/14huiVp24pY/?mibextid=wwXIfr

Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: OhioBoy] #8635756
Yesterday at 09:14 PM
Yesterday at 09:14 PM
Joined: Jan 2012
Ohio, 48yo
OhioBoy Offline OP
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OhioBoy  Offline OP
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Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: white17] #8635757
Yesterday at 09:17 PM
Yesterday at 09:17 PM
Joined: May 2011
Oakland, MS
yotetrapper30 Online content
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Joined: May 2011
Oakland, MS
Originally Posted by white17
Originally Posted by OhioBoy
Everything crypto thats happening. Surely its planned. Better said surely trumps team is trying to execute a plan. It doesnt matter to me when they started planning it. If we can figure it out we can ride along.



Warsh had quite a bit invested in crypto start-ups but had to divest all that when confirmed to his current position on the Fed.

The Fed MAY continue research int stable coins backed by the dollar but...IMO that just justifies the blockchain and not some alt medium of exchange.

At any rate congress would have to pass legislation directing the Fed to issue any sort of crypto. I don't se that happening any time soon.


As far as rates go......I suspect the Fed will stand pat again at this month's meeting. OTOH they may raise 25bp just to send a message that Warsh is not Trump's toady.

I think Warsh believes that resuming QT will result in a de facto increase in rates without actually raising rates. I think that would be a good start at least. But i also think rates still need to rise as inflation is still too high.


Here is a clip from his senate confirmation hearing. It starts at the three minute mark.



For those that don't wanna watch, lol...

[Linked Image]

Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: OhioBoy] #8635760
Yesterday at 09:21 PM
Yesterday at 09:21 PM
Joined: Jan 2012
Ohio, 48yo
OhioBoy Offline OP
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OhioBoy  Offline OP
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Yes white so you pick a crypto. I chose bitcoin. Its been around and is at a low. XRP i have and is sonehow tied to ripple. I dont understand it all.

Warsh didnt just hold some crypto. He lead research at Stanford about it but thats me trusting google again


IMG_2036.pngIMG_2037.png
Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: OhioBoy] #8635775
Yesterday at 09:48 PM
Yesterday at 09:48 PM
Joined: Jan 2012
Ohio, 48yo
OhioBoy Offline OP
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OhioBoy  Offline OP
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So what donyou think yote? That yahoo article is dated july 9 right? Am i missing something?

Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: OhioBoy] #8635783
Yesterday at 09:58 PM
Yesterday at 09:58 PM
Joined: May 2011
Oakland, MS
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Joined: May 2011
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Originally Posted by OhioBoy
So what donyou think yote? That yahoo article is dated july 9 right? Am i missing something?


Well....look at the committee he is on. Productivity and Jobs. Crypto exists. People use/own it. Latest records I could find is that 8% of Americans have it in their portfolios, and 3% have used it to buy/sell things or services. I do think at some point that number will grow. When or with what currency there isn't much telling. Most major banks have some crypto exposure, whether it is through holding it for institutional clients or offering it as an investment option.

So to me.....when you're forming a committee to deal with productivity and job creation of the future, it makes sense you would want at least one person on that committee that understands things like blockchain, digital currency, tokens, etc.

Acknowledging retail crypto usage is a far cry from promoting central bank involvement with it.

Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: OhioBoy] #8635784
Yesterday at 10:00 PM
Yesterday at 10:00 PM
Joined: Oct 2024
Kansas
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Joined: Oct 2024
Kansas
Originally Posted by OhioBoy
If your just saving at the bank you are losing money.


I am not just saving at the bank. I invest to match an arbitrary asselt allocation, with arbitrary percentages allocated large/small/micro growth/value, reits, foreign developed (large/small growth/value), EM, EM small, etc. The specific percantages don't matter much, the purpose is to have a specific level of exposure to wide variety of asset classes with varying levels of corelation, but all having a positive real expected return (long term). In each asset class I use index funds as much as practical.

Every year a few asset classes do better than their norm and a few do noteably worse. It makes no difference to me which is which, and there is no need to predict the winners and losers ahead of time. Every few months or so I update balances in a spread sheet I made over 20 years ago to compute the overall asset allocation across all the acounts. If they're out of balance, I buy/sell as necessary to get back close the target allocation.

I googled for a recent historical asset class return chart and found this one.
[Linked Image]


-Joe
Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: OhioBoy] #8635812
Yesterday at 10:39 PM
Yesterday at 10:39 PM
Joined: May 2011
Oakland, MS
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Originally Posted by OhioBoy
Some guy…

Im just speaking technically and technically as i understand it 5% of your total investments are supposed to be crypto. Its a number on the roulette table. I want to have some chips sitting on it. At least 5%. Its not just rolling the dice to see what comes up.

and im not telling anybody to do anything. Im trying to get them to think about something before their voo and qqq drops and they are surprised.

Just trying to get people interested in investing. If your just saving at the bank you are losing money. Thats the general theme of the links.


I think the "responsibly' part of the title is what got me too because there's not very much responsible about this. You acknowledge that you're likely to lose money and are ok with that.

But if you feel that urging people to divest from ETFs like QQQ or VOO to invest that money in PMs and crypto is "responsible" investing, we certainly disagree!

Crypto at least, at this point, is pure speculation. Speculation is okay... but it's not what I'd call responsible investing.

Most people, if they are able to ride out a 3-5 year bear market without needing the invested funds, would be much better off keeping the money in QQQ or VOO..... at least from a risk standpoint.

If they are older and expect to need that money in the short-term, and are uninterested in active management of their own accounts, then they would be better off sticking that money in treasuries if they feel a correction is imminent.

If a person fears a correction, derivatives are also a possibility if they don't mind active account management, as they can earn in a bear market just as they can in a bull market. But, they too are higher risk, IMO.

Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: OhioBoy] #8635846
3 hours ago
3 hours ago
Joined: Jan 2012
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Ok

Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: OhioBoy] #8635856
55 minutes ago
55 minutes ago
Joined: May 2011
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Originally Posted by OhioBoy
Ok


Oh don't get huffy about it, lol.

You've said multiple times that what you're doing is "not for everyone" and I agree. It is not for the average investor, and therefore in my opinion not "responsible" for the average investor!

But neither is what I do! The vast majority of my investments at any given time are in the options market! And that is certainly not for everyone and certainly not even for "most".

The only difference (imo) is that I realize that and so I would never even consider telling random people to divest the stocks/ETFs/funds they are long to invest in options! Because unless they spend considerable time beyond some internet searches learning about the topic, they're most likely gonna lose their arse just like they will if they take your advice. That said... if someone had a genuine interest in learning options trading I would tell them the miniscule amount that I understand about it, and try to direct them to better resources on the topic.

I know that I am eons away from knowing all I need to know about the options market. I know enough to get by in it......barely. grin But judging from your posts on here I think I may know a tad bit more about the options market than you do about the crypto market....... not much.....mind you. And surely not enough to recommend people sell their shares to take my financial advice and take up trading derivatives!

Do I think that in a bear market people can make more money from options than from being long shares/ETFs/etc. ??? Well of course! Do I think anyone should sell all their long shares to put that money into the options market knowing nothing more than what they have learned on WallStreetBets or Youtube because they fear a bear market is coming?? Of course NOT!

If a person wants to invest 5% of their portfolio in crypto......and 5% in PMs.....go for it. I'd be curious to know the results of that a year from now, vs the SPY and QQQ returns.

Re: Lets get rich. Responsibily. [Re: OhioBoy] #8635857
46 minutes ago
46 minutes ago
Joined: May 2011
Oakland, MS
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Joined: May 2011
Oakland, MS
Hey Troy. You said you like Russian Roulette, right? grin

Wanna gamble????

Can you separate your returns from PMs and crypto from your other equity/etc accounts??

If so I would like to propose a duel. grin

I have several accounts I trade in.... but I will choose the one I intend to be most active in this coming year.... which is ALSO the one I intend to be most risky in. My Roth account. I own zero shares in that account so it'll be 100% options trading. Why it's important you can seperate PMs and crypto from other securities.... this must be 100% crypto/pm vs options or there is no bet.

If you can do that...... I will bet you $100 that my 100% options account will beat your crypto/pm earnings.....1 yr return....effective date 7/15/2026-7/15/2027..........percentage wise....not dollars....I suspect you have more of those than I do lol.

If you accept we're work out the details beforehand.

Wanna play??




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