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Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: hunter88] #6862386
05/03/20 06:30 PM
05/03/20 06:30 PM
Joined: Jan 2013
Posts: 3,112
7mtns of CENTRAL PA
GROUSEWIT Offline
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Originally Posted by hunter88
Originally Posted by WadeRyan
That’s where I don’t agree with you. The number of Covid deaths means something. They’ve been used by the media to cause hysteria which is going to be the biggest issue going further. The economy is tanking and we’re going to suffer much more in the long run then covid could have ever caused.

I’m relating this to the entire United States. People have given up their rights with very little resistance. Mainly fueled by the possibility of spreading a virus which is going to be spread regardless and by all means appears to be exaggerated.

People are so focused on who’s going to die from Covid no one is focusing on the big picture. Nebraska didn’t really flatten the curve. We’re leading the states in the number of Covid cases diagnosed increasing in the last week yet the hospitals still aren’t overwhelmed. It’s been in my community for over a month now with ages ranging from infants to 90 year olds with no one on a ventilator.

It’s just not the monster the media wants you to believe it is. As testing increases we’re seeing what many expected all along. For the majority of the population Covid the virus is not causing severe health issues. I agree with Steven. We’re going to dwarf the Great Depression here soon and I don’t disagree War will be too far behind.




Nebraska did flatten the curve. The curve is not about the total number of cases, it's all about not overloading the hospital, which is exactly what we did, and we did it without closing down the state and doing more damage to the economy.

Let the number of cases grow, it has to do that so it slows or stops. I don't see a vaccine coming for this, so the only thing that stops it is 70% of the people getting it. So let those cases grow, but grow at a rate where the hospitals can handle it, and for now that's what we're doing.

The media can cause hysteria about the virus, just as it can cause hysteria about the economy. This is not 2008, Trump is in office not Obama. There is no reason to think the economy is not coming back strong and quickly. The virus is the only thing that held it back and as more and more states open up the economy will open up too. In the long run we may be way better off when it comes to the economy. People have now seen what Trump has been saying all along, we can't depend on China for our manufacturing. Businesses are now seeing the problem with that, and many are looking at ways to get out of China and bring jobs back here to the US.

To me all the doom and gloom about the economy is media driven. It's to the media's advantage to make a big deal about the virus, just as it's to their advantage to claim the economy is in bad shape and will be that way a long time. If a person doesn't believe the media when it comes to the virus, how can someone believe them when it comes to their reporting on the economy.

And on the Covid virus versus the standard flu. Did we shut down for the flu, no can't say we did. But did meat packing plants close because of the flu. no they didn't. So it seems to me it's hard to compare covid to the flu, that and the fact I've never seen the flu kill 60,000 in 6 weeks, with probably another 50,000 or 60,000 to die over the next couple months.

So thats about 10% of what usually die in 2 months.


NRALIFER,PRPA LIFER,HUNTER,FURTAKER
Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862391
05/03/20 06:36 PM
05/03/20 06:36 PM
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rogers city mi.
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jeff karsten Offline
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I certainly hope they have numbers that justify shuting down the most freedom loving country in the world reducing them to a screaming mob fearing the unprecedented loss of basic household items and willingly suck on the govt. thumb Yes large numbers are desperately needed


olden tyred
Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862395
05/03/20 06:44 PM
05/03/20 06:44 PM
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Nebraska
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hunter88 Offline
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Quote
So thats about 10% of what usually die in 2 months.


Or on top of those that usually die in 2 months. But there's not going to be any good numbers on that for quite a while.



Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862397
05/03/20 06:45 PM
05/03/20 06:45 PM
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n.e, iowa
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I just seem on news. An other nite at 10 o'clock news. Ovewhelming evidence that viris came from lab in wukan, trump supposed to be increasingly after them, supposed sent spy's there. Say he going hold whoever start viris accountable. It does seem like a virus Intentionaly made. Whoever responsible ought be destroyed. Some real dirty crap that attack lungs. An what does. Don't sound like something. Not man made to.me

Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862423
05/03/20 07:04 PM
05/03/20 07:04 PM
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Nebraska
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Originally Posted by WadeRyan
Hunter, did Nebraska flatten the curve by shutting down the businesses you mentioned earlier or did the tidal wave of patients not come because Covid isn't as deadly as we've been told? An overflow of patients at the hospital right now is the least of their worries as many of them are running in the negative which sets the United States up for an even bigger healthcare disaster in the future. There have been positives in my community, not self quarantining, and going around the entire community for at least four weeks. They haven't followed any directives. Wal-marts are still full of people, gas stations are full of people, and people are still socializing. So by all means they've done no social distancing yet there's no influx of patients here. Just empty hospital beds.

I don't have to look at the media to learn about the economy. It's pretty straight driven when people aren't working it's not going to do well. I don't know what else to say about that. I mean I really don't have anything else.

Your last paragraph perfectly points out the reason for this post. There's that 60,000 deaths in 6 week figure I'd hope by reading my post you'd understand is a fallacy. Why didn't the meat packing plants close for influenza? The workers had influenza, spread it, and kept on working. Why is is closing for Covid-19? Everyone at the plant is getting tested for it and everyone is in fear for their lives which also as I have pointed out in this post is not necessarily needed. I've said this before can you imagine if the media reported every daily case of influenza per state in the United States for the entire flu season and reported every death related to influenza? People wouldn't leave their house, ever.


Some will always feel it's no worse then the flu, but I suspect the people in New York or Spain or Italy or many other areas might disagree with that. They've had firsthand knowledge of what it was like. 60,000 people have died so far, it just seems a bit petty to me to argue over how they died. I mean dead is dead, isn't it. Do we really need to say they died from something else to try and prove a point.

It seems your argument is based on the economy. So why do you feel it's not coming back as strong or stronger? What evidence is there to say it will be bad for a long period of time? Is there something other then the virus to keep the economy down? I'd be more interested in your thoughts on this instead of how many people really died over covid.



Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862443
05/03/20 07:23 PM
05/03/20 07:23 PM
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Nebraska
WadeRyan Offline OP
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Yes, in fact to make the claims that Covid-19 is worth shutting the entire country down I'd like to see facts that it has a mortality and infectious rate as was once reported. Fact of the matter is it doesn't and here we are with some states still extending their shut downs. My argument for this entire thread has been that Covid-19 is not as big of a killer as it has been reported. If you can prove me wrong I'd love to see numbers.

Honestly, I don't really know what you want from me on the economy. We don't need the virus to "keep the economy down." It's already there. The damage has already been done. My thought is the government can't keep printing money and bailing us out. Millions of small businesses in this country won't exist when the dust settles. Farmers are killing off livestock and losing money by the second. The rate of unemployment has sky rocketed. I'm sure the economy will rebound but it likely won't be in our lifetime.

From a local viewpoint a healthcare system that takes care of 30,000 people is near it's knees. Who's going to care for those people without them traveling 100 miles when this is said and done? What about all of those people in their homes with COPD, CAD, HTN, CVA, and a whole host of chronic diseases. They're sitting at home with poor dietary intake, decreased exercise, and an added amount of stress from this. What is going to happen to those people?

What about the people that don't even know they have one of the above diagnoses that can't even have preventative care because their healthcare system is shut down? What about the cancer patients that their treatments have been moved back months due to Covid-19. If you had cancer right now that could be treated I'd think you'd be a bit upset with the system.I could go on and on how this virus is going to rattle America and it surely won't be by the total number of deaths it creates.


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Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: hunter88] #6862447
05/03/20 07:29 PM
05/03/20 07:29 PM
Joined: Jan 2013
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7mtns of CENTRAL PA
GROUSEWIT Offline
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Originally Posted by hunter88
Quote
So thats about 10% of what usually die in 2 months.


Or on top of those that usually die in 2 months. But there's not going to be any good numbers on that for quite a while.

That is correct: There is no PROOF that anymore people are dying than normally do!!!!


NRALIFER,PRPA LIFER,HUNTER,FURTAKER
Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862492
05/03/20 08:12 PM
05/03/20 08:12 PM
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Nebraska
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hunter88 Offline
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Originally Posted by WadeRyan

Honestly, I don't really know what you want from me on the economy. We don't need the virus to "keep the economy down." It's already there. The damage has already been done. My thought is the government can't keep printing money and bailing us out. Millions of small businesses in this country won't exist when the dust settles. Farmers are killing off livestock and losing money by the second. The rate of unemployment has sky rocketed. I'm sure the economy will rebound but it likely won't be in our lifetime.

From a local viewpoint a healthcare system that takes care of 30,000 people is near it's knees. Who's going to care for those people without them traveling 100 miles when this is said and done? What about all of those people in their homes with COPD, CAD, HTN, CVA, and a whole host of chronic diseases. They're sitting at home with poor dietary intake, decreased exercise, and an added amount of stress from this. What is going to happen to those people?

What about the people that don't even know they have one of the above diagnoses that can't even have preventative care because their healthcare system is shut down? What about the cancer patients that their treatments have been moved back months due to Covid-19. If you had cancer right now that could be treated I'd think you'd be a bit upset with the system.I could go on and on how this virus is going to rattle America and it surely won't be by the total number of deaths it creates.


As to the bold, yes the economy is down, but because of Covid 19, once states open up there's no reason the economy should stay down. The unemployment numbers are temporary once the state opens back up. You should have seen the unemployment numbers back in 1982, those were bad numbers and back then there was no reason to think they were going to get better for a while The same thing goes for 2008, there was no reason to think that economy was coming back quickly. Today is totally different, and I'd really like to hear why the economy is not going to get better in our lifetime. I've seen no evidence to think that is true.

Why will the economy not rebound in our lifetime? what's going to stop it? Why will millions of small businesses not exist? In many states they are opening back up and going back to business in the new usual. They'll make some changes, but people are going back to work. Yes we have some states that will have to wait longer. How did you people in Oregon and Michigan elect the couple of morons you have for governor, I feel sorry for you and your businesses. But their problem is not Covid 19, it's a governor that is playing politics. Politics will hurt their economy, not Covid 19.

As to the bold on a local healthcare system near it's knees, please explain that one if you would. I know of no healthcare system in Nebraska that is overrun because of Covid 19. Yes some cases were sent from the Grand Island hospital to other hospitals, but that was the plan. Make sure the state hospitals are not overrun, and if one gets more cases move them to other hospitals. Since no one is overrun, that's why we could open hospitals back up to elective surgeries again. Another opening of the economy.

If it's all about over reporting Covid 19 deaths which is ruining the economy, I'd like to know how that's going to keep the economy from coming back rather quickly.



Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862504
05/03/20 08:19 PM
05/03/20 08:19 PM
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Nebraska
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Originally Posted by GROUSEWIT

That is correct: There is no PROOF that anymore people are dying than normally do!!!!


But that's not what I said, I said we may well be having our normal heart attack deaths or any other deaths as usual. If we are, then we have to add the 60,000 deaths they want to credit to Covid 19. Now if all other health related deaths are down by say 40,000 or 50,000, then a person might want to say Covid 19 may have really only amounted to 10,000 or 20,000 deaths. But like I said before, does one really need to argue over how 60,000 people died. Is't the fact they died enough. Do you think their families care one way or the other how they died. But then I suppose with the death of a loved one to deal with, they probably aren't trying to foster a bogus number agenda. Probably seems trivial to them.



Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862509
05/03/20 08:27 PM
05/03/20 08:27 PM
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Steven 49er Offline
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The economy is not down "because of covid 19", it's been sliding since at least September.

This will not be a temporary blip.


"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Milton Friedman.
Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862513
05/03/20 08:35 PM
05/03/20 08:35 PM
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Nebraska
WadeRyan Offline OP
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Hunter, it's near its knees due to the fact there are no patients. Not because it's overrun. The place is a ghost town. There's no revenue. With no revenue the healthcare system doesn't survive. That's my point it is not an isolated thing here in Nebraska. There's hospitals across the country that are laying off staff, closing their doors, and who will take care of the people then? Clinics that see 25-30 patients per provider per day down to 3-4 by telehealth. Instead of Covid overwhelming healthcare systems they have essentially suffocated them. The solution? Government bail outs....the issue? Where is this money magically appearing from?

When these hospitals have to shut their doors the only people that are going to suffer are the people living in the community. Their health outcomes will be worse. They will have to travel farther for healthcare. Local economies that are supported by these institutions will not survive. It's a giant snow ball effect.

I will agree that the government elects (lets not turn this political and watch this thread go down) are causing a lot of the issues with the economy. However, what are they using to make these changes and rules? Covid-19 deaths....it's the basis for this entire thing which I have shown at the start of this this thread is a fallacy. Covid is not killing as many people as the powers that be would like the general public to believe.

The unemployment rate for the 2008 recession was 5.5% at the start and 10.2% at the peak. For the 1982 era it was 5.1% and a peak of 10.8%. March of 2020 the United States was at 4.1% what do you suppose the April numbers will show?


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Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: hunter88] #6862522
05/03/20 08:41 PM
05/03/20 08:41 PM
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Originally Posted by hunter88
Originally Posted by GROUSEWIT

That is correct: There is no PROOF that anymore people are dying than normally do!!!!


But that's not what I said, I said we may well be having our normal heart attack deaths or any other deaths as usual. If we are, then we have to add the 60,000 deaths they want to credit to Covid 19. Now if all other health related deaths are down by say 40,000 or 50,000, then a person might want to say Covid 19 may have really only amounted to 10,000 or 20,000 deaths. But like I said before, does one really need to argue over how 60,000 people died. Is't the fact they died enough. Do you think their families care one way or the other how they died. But then I suppose with the death of a loved one to deal with, they probably aren't trying to foster a bogus number agenda. Probably seems trivial to them.


Absolutely we should be concerned about how they died. When doctors have come out and said theyve been told to call a death covid when they feel it’s not, that should be concerning to everyone.

Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862524
05/03/20 08:42 PM
05/03/20 08:42 PM
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Steven 49er Offline
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April numbers will be 18 to 22 percent. The FED predicts we will see unemployment levels in the 30 percentile before this finishes.

Unemployment was 24 percent during the Depression.


"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Milton Friedman.
Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: Steven 49er] #6862529
05/03/20 08:50 PM
05/03/20 08:50 PM
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Nebraska
WadeRyan Offline OP
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Originally Posted by Steven 49er
April numbers will be 18 to 22 percent. The FED predicts we will see unemployment levels in the 30 percentile before this finishes.

Unemployment was 24 percent during the Depression.


So Steven, I'm not really an economist by trade nor do I consider myself all that well versed with it. Do you feel like that will be something we will recover from rather quickly? Few years? Lots of years?

I wasn't alive during the Great Depression but from what I can gather it lasted around 10 years and spiraled into a war. We're predicted to be beyond that so would it be safe to say this might take a while?


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Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862534
05/03/20 08:52 PM
05/03/20 08:52 PM
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I haven't saw much of a change in life since this all started except the fact that we haven't had to go to ball practices and games everyday for the kids. The local walmart has been packed everytime I go by and the few times I've went in over the past months it's been busier than normal. We had 3 cases a month ago we've only gained a few since, I figured the way all the media talked it would explode with all the people going about their business as usual but it hasn't. Some local churches opened back up today here in East Tenn and restaurants so we shall see what happens. Thankfully the hospital my wife works at is starting to do normal surgeries tomorrow after pretty much shutting down over 2/3 the hospital for the past month, and now she can get back to normal working hours

Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862566
05/03/20 09:24 PM
05/03/20 09:24 PM
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CDC just dropped the death tole from 63,000 to 37,000. That is a slight change.


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Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862607
05/03/20 09:52 PM
05/03/20 09:52 PM
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Originally Posted by WadeRyan
Hunter, it's near its knees due to the fact there are no patients. Not because it's overrun. The place is a ghost town. There's no revenue. With no revenue the healthcare system doesn't survive. That's my point it is not an isolated thing here in Nebraska. There's hospitals across the country that are laying off staff, closing their doors, and who will take care of the people then? Clinics that see 25-30 patients per provider per day down to 3-4 by telehealth. Instead of Covid overwhelming healthcare systems they have essentially suffocated them. The solution? Government bail outs....the issue? Where is this money magically appearing from?

When these hospitals have to shut their doors the only people that are going to suffer are the people living in the community. Their health outcomes will be worse. They will have to travel farther for healthcare. Local economies that are supported by these institutions will not survive. It's a giant snow ball effect.

I will agree that the government elects (lets not turn this political and watch this thread go down) are causing a lot of the issues with the economy. However, what are they using to make these changes and rules? Covid-19 deaths....it's the basis for this entire thing which I have shown at the start of this this thread is a fallacy. Covid is not killing as many people as the powers that be would like the general public to believe.

The unemployment rate for the 2008 recession was 5.5% at the start and 10.2% at the peak. For the 1982 era it was 5.1% and a peak of 10.8%. March of 2020 the United States was at 4.1% what do you suppose the April numbers will show?


Yes hospitals need work and that is why one of the first things to open is elective surgeries, they needed that, hopefully it helps.

I understand we don't want to make it political because discussions usually go bad when you do, but the states that are not opening up and further hurting their economy are doing it for political purposes, not Covid 19 deaths.

There's been a lot of blame put on Trump, and that's fine both sides always blame the other when they have a chance, that's politics. But Trump is a lot smarter then some of those governors. Trump mentioned Hydroxychloroquine and some governors ran out quick and banned it in their state. He mentioned decisions were his and some governors started yelling he couldn't force them to do anything. Then Trump stepped up and said we have to be aware of state's rights, and each governor should have the final decision on what their state does as far as opening back up. Now all those governors that had been playing politics found themselves in a position where they'd actually have to make an important decision. They found themselves being responsible for what happens in the future, they don't want to take the blame if they make the wrong decision, and they can't blame Trump anymore. So they panic and go overboard with rules and restrictions that hurt the people in their state.

Over 700,000 jobs lost in a few weeks, and we went to 4% unemployment, still a long way to go to get to 10%. Maybe we'll get there with April's numbers, but the only thing that did that was Covid 19. Not interest rates or a bad job market or many of the other reasons for a bad economy. I still haven't seen a reason the economy shouldn't take off once more and more states open up and jobs come back.

Yes we could see 10% unemployment like we had in 1982. But interest rates aren't anywhere near what they were then. 10% unemployment and a 30 year home loan could be gotten for 9.9%, that's what I paid for my 30 year loan back then. I can still hear the banker saying anytime you can get 30 year money for under 10% you need to grab it. The key is 1982 and 2008 had their own reasons for a bad economy, they didn't just turn a switch and find the economy was hit hard overnight by a virus. Long term recessions take time to recover, but this is not that type of situation, so there's no evidence it will not recover in our lifetime, and I'm old enough a lifetime warranty doesn't mean as much as it used to.



Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862623
05/03/20 10:02 PM
05/03/20 10:02 PM
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Nebraska
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Originally Posted by DWC


Absolutely we should be concerned about how they died. When doctors have come out and said theyve been told to call a death covid when they feel it’s not, that should be concerning to everyone.



So what does it change? The only reason they are important is if you disagree with the time we shut things down and what that did to the economy, you want the death numbers to be inaccurate, so you can say see we shouldn't have done that. I'm not saying you yourself are saying that, I'm saying that's what some people want to use the numbers for.

States are not stopping their opening based on deaths, they are basing what the're doing on their hospitals. Here in Nebraska our cases are going up and the deaths are still going up, yet we're opening up because our hospitals can handle it. If you've noticed it's the media that is questioning some governors in some states about opening up, and it is the media that is trying to use deaths to say states shouldn't open. Some governors jump at the opening the media gave them to keep their states closed.



Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: WadeRyan] #6862655
05/03/20 10:23 PM
05/03/20 10:23 PM
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700,000 jobs lost in the past few weeks?

Straight from the department of labor. https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

The COVID-19 virus continues to impact the number of initial claims and insured unemployment.
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,839,000, a decrease of
603,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 15,000 from 4,427,000 to
4,442,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,033,250, a decrease of 757,000 from the previous week's revised average.
The previous week's average was revised up by 3,750 from 5,786,500 to 5,790,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 12.4 percent for the week ending April 18, an
increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous week's revised rate. This marks the highest level of the seasonally
adjusted insured unemployment rate in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous week's rate was revised
down by 0.1 from 11.0 to 10.9 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the
week ending April 18 was 17,992,000, an increase of 2,174,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the
highest level of seasonally adjusted insured unemployment in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous
week's level was revised down by 158,000 from 15,976,000 to 15,818,000. The 4-week moving average was 13,292,500,
an increase of 3,733,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by
39,000 from 9,598,250 to 9,559,250.


700,000? There was 700,000 a day on average from April 12th to the 18th.

13 million new claims in the first three weeks of April!

Wade, I'm not an economist either, like white 17 said in another thread "I'm not optimistic". It's safe to say I'm even less "optimistic" than Ken is.

The jobs report for the April that should come out this week will be not so rosy so to speak.

Last edited by Steven 49er; 05/03/20 10:27 PM.

"Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon". Milton Friedman.
Re: Covid-Death rates in the United States. [Re: hunter88] #6862673
05/03/20 10:42 PM
05/03/20 10:42 PM
Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,619
Nebraska
WadeRyan Offline OP
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WadeRyan  Offline OP
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Joined: Jul 2012
Posts: 2,619
Nebraska
Originally Posted by hunter88
Originally Posted by DWC


Absolutely we should be concerned about how they died. When doctors have come out and said theyve been told to call a death covid when they feel it’s not, that should be concerning to everyone.



So what does it change? The only reason they are important is if you disagree with the time we shut things down and what that did to the economy, you want the death numbers to be inaccurate, so you can say see we shouldn't have done that. I'm not saying you yourself are saying that, I'm saying that's what some people want to use the numbers for.

States are not stopping their opening based on deaths, they are basing what the're doing on their hospitals. Here in Nebraska our cases are going up and the deaths are still going up, yet we're opening up because our hospitals can handle it. If you've noticed it's the media that is questioning some governors in some states about opening up, and it is the media that is trying to use deaths to say states shouldn't open. Some governors jump at the opening the media gave them to keep their states closed.

I don't want the death numbers to be inaccurate, I'm just showing you they are. I would hope what it would change is when Covid comes around for a second round the country doesn't lose its mind like it just did. Prevent this craziness from occurring twice. This will only be accomplished by showing how crazy the media has let this get out of hand.


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