Same here in my part of Illinois ain't 25% of the birds we had 15 years ago

Killed my last Missouri gobbler today.
8 mornings of hunting.
Toughest season I’ve ever experienced. Started hunting turkey in 1977.

My farm is not far from Clay creech's. Our turkeys have been on that decline for the last 10 years. So few that I don't even hunt them there anymore. I actually hunt down around lake of the Ozarks. They have a much stronger population. I wish I had seen this thread sooner I could have directed you to some public ground down there that holds several gobblers and no one hunts it.

Ol dad

Any idea why the numbers are going down?

They don't seem to be going down here as I see them as roadkill quite often. They are also being killed as nuisance birds in the burbs.

Just curious as to what the difference might be...

I don't know what Clay thinks the cause is and I really don't get it where I'm at in Illinois except poor hatches but what gets me is what you guys say up north on how many you have all with the brutal winters that you have up there one would think a turkey would have a tough time surviving compared to our broken timber / ag land with non existent harsh winters except for a few short weeks maybe

From everything ive read about this massive decrease in numbers, its varying from predators, habitat, weather, unknown disease, more hunters, ect. Aka no one knows. I hunt in extreme northeast Nebraska, have for 15 years, and Im perplexed. Ive seen more jakes this year than ever before I think. With that said, Im seeing less toms I think. When I drive to my 2 spots Ive had permission for for a long time, I used to pass numerous stud strutters all over in about 5 miles. They were just always out in the fields like they were showing iff for the highway. Now, less. The one property i hunt overlooks other properties across a gravel road and I would see strutters over there. Some have even crossed the road and come 600+ yards to meet their maker. Even on this piece I hunt, which is large and fairly open. Used to be numerous toms throughout, now not. But the jakes this year….theres a bunch. So its almost like his turkey shortage happened in the past couple years, and now we are flooded with last years supply. Next year should be good.

we were down here for a few years, but now they are back,

Most of the south east, the turkey population is in decline when looking at the big picture. Many states have made adjustments in season dates and limits. Low nesting success rates seem to be a big issue but the why question has not been answered. And lots of factors like habitat loss and predation could be contributing. Bad weather (rain and cold) at hatch time definitely has an impact. And it is not just limited to the south east. KS and NE have made changes as well.

I have hunted KS and NE for about 12 years now and have seen areas go from lot of birds to not enough to hunt in more than one area.

And at home in NC, we have areas where the turkey population is still expanding and other areas where the population is in serious decline. I have seen the decline first hand on land that I have hunted all my life. But there are a lot more folks turkey hunting now than just a few years ago also.

My personal opinion is that there is something affecting the fertility rate that has yet to be identified but I could be as wrong as two left feet. It could just be a combination of factors creating a perfect storm.

I think it's largely predators. Predominantly nest raiders. But bobcats started showing up in my part of the state 10 to 15 years ago and that's when I started seeing our population take a hit. We've had several outbreaks of turkey pox as well. No one traps anymore. The coons and possums are rampant. I can remember 30 years ago seeing fall flocks of 75+. Now 20's if lucky...

Ol dad

I believe it's disease for the most part here. Habitat and predators haven't changed that much in last 20 years. If was hunters we should still see a lot of hens.

The problem in the southeast is the lack of brood rearing habitat. This is predominately due to closed canopy forest from no management and very little early successional habitat. I saw something the other day that said only 5 or 6 percent of the ENTIRE southeast is suitable brood rearing habitat. Controlled burns should be standard practice. The southeast forests have too high of a basal area to allow brood rearing habitat. A low basal area of 40 or 50 is what we need to be shooting for. Most pines are planted at a 70-80 basal. We need sunlight under that canopy.

Predator trapping is playing defense. Defense is necessary and should be promoted, but you can't win without playing some offense. Controlled burns and timber management for proper basal area are ways to play offense.

Missouri has a very comprehensive study ongoing. Without a doubt, the number one DIRECT cause is predation of nests and poults. Pretty much every southern turkey study shows the same thing. Most of the researchers know that and are trying to determine what indirect factors could be changed to reduce the predation - like changes in habitat, or season structure.

A number of years ago, Dr Chamberlain from UGA did a turkey study in Mississippi, where they not only had telemetry equipment on turkeys, but on coons, foxes, possums, etc. I cant remember the exact numbers - but they had something like four turkey hens, a couple of gray foxes, maybe a couple of coons and a possum or two - all in one general area fitted with telemetry equip. What was really interesting to me - a nesting pair of great horned owls killed them all - the turkeys, the foxes, coons, possums - all of them. Dr Chamberlain said paired great horned owls were one of the most vicious animals in the southern woods.

Roundup and no till has changed the landscape of farming and could be having an impact as well. Even if Roundup (the chemical itself) is not having a negative impact, the result of its use could still be a factor. When grasses and weeds are killed, it reduces or relocates the insects like grasshoppers that are an important part of the seasonal protein for turkeys.

If the answer was easy, I suspect someone would have found it by now but that does not seem to be the case.

What with the suckiness of the economy, I wonder if poaching is a big factor. Wouldn't take too big a family to clean out an area or even a county.

You are spot on coondagger2.

Good habitat (especially with nesting and brood-rearing qualities) can overcome predation. Poor quality habitat cannot cannot make up for the losses to predation/disease, etc.

Down here it is becoming more clear that as habitat changes over time (becoming less attractive for hens for nesting and poult rearing) that the turkey population is decreasing. Larger tracts (few hundred acres to several thousand) that thin timber/control burn/maintain wide and grassy roadways/select clearcutting that results in a mosaic of stand sizes....they still have good turkey numbers and haven't even noticed any change.

An adult turkey can live just about anywhere. It's the poults that have the special needs.

Have not been even close to getting a shot at a bird and it’s been a week, we did find some birds the last couple of days but they are hanging together but not much interest in getting shot. Will stick around a few days before heading back to SD to call for a friend.

You sort of have to decide if you want to grow trees or you want to grow turkeys

Of course when you timber a 500 acre block of pines planted at 40 or 50 basal you aren't making near the change that you are at 80 basal

Unfortunately money will always come before turkeys

I would love to have 5 or 600 acres of my own to manage the habitat.

Kansas turkey numbers have been on the decrease for several years. We used to have a two bird limit in the spring, but now only the 2 hunting units in the North west and North central units can harvest two birds.
Yesterday the Kansas Wildlife and Parks commission met and the following was proposed to try to protect the resource :

1. Suspend the Fall season to protect the hens-only about 500 have been taken each Fall in recent years.

2. Go to a one Tom limit statewide starting next year.

3. Start a draw for all non resident turkey tags . Until now, there have been over the counter tags and the average number of hunters in the various units from the past several years will be cut by 25% in each unit.

Obviously, not everyone attending the meeting was happy to hear the proposals. We do have a huge decrease in bird numbers from five or so years ago!

Google or you tube neonicotinoids
Studies in Missouri are showing hens are nesting, eggs are hatching, but poults aren’t lasting more than a few days. Many visible insect species here are almost nonexistent anymore. Grasshoppers that used to be absolutely thick are gone here. You see one where there were many thousands. June bugs were thick not long ago. Haven’t seen one in a few years. Not that many years ago you HAD to wash your windshield in the summertime every fill up due to the bugs creamed on them. On a hot summer night you’d drop off in a creek or river bottom and it sounded like it was raining from the bug’s hitting the windshield. No more. Those are visible insects. What about the not so visible ones?
I don’t know what species of insects that turkey poults eat in their first few days and weeks. But I do know that they can’t survive without them. It is very noticeable here that the higher percentage of row crop country you’re in, the less turkey there are. Higher percentage of pasture, CRP, and timber there’s more turkey. Not at historic levels, but more. I live in a predominantly row crop area.
This isn’t limited to turkeys. Many songbird species are way down.Whippoorwills used to be so thick here that it was hard to hear a turkey gobble before fly down. I’ve heard ONE all spring. Bullfrogs are gone. Quail are gone. Honeybee numbers are hurting.
If you’re attuned to the outdoors and all of the critters living there, you see that something is wrong.
All of this is anecdotal evidence and an opinion from one small part of the country.
I do not buy the 100 percent predation theory. Turkey have been coexisting with predation forever, and the decline started here when fur prices were still good. Certainly not saying that predators don’t need some serious thinning. They surely do. Just IMO this decline goes way deeper than just that.
If the shoe fits…………….but good luck fighting big ag.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7_7kpj3eGiI

Most recent MO turkey study