My first house was 38,500@ 13.08 interest,I believe if i would have stayed in it for 30 years,
it would have cost 160,000.00 to pay off.
But sold it 5 years later and doubled my money.

X2...not sure why Op and so many others think young folks should be starting out in new houses or new vehicles. I keep hearing oil fields and dependable trucks. Got news for you, everyone with any type of job outside the home needs a dependable vehicle....but that doesnt equate to new truck. Again, too many young folk wanting what their parents have but it took them 40 years of work and saving to get. Quite frankly, with no disrespect meant towards Chancey, I think that type of mentality is part of what is hurting this country by driving debt and putting young folks in a position to fail.

The educational system preaches entitlement on a daily basis and way too many parents facilitate it.

Must be much fancier new trucks than I buy if they are over $1300 a month. Holy cow!

Guessing he is including insurance, tabs, etc or the truck is a big 3/4 or 1 ton diesel. A $60k truck on 48 month loan with no down payment would be $1,250/mo not including interest, insurance, tabs, etc. I’m always jealous of of all the folks down south who can buy a vehicle and plan to keep it for 20 years with minimal problems cause the dang thing isn’t rusted out in 10-15 years. Gonna be searching out southwest in a couple years for a new used van for the wife and a nice 90s 4x4 Chevy with no rust and likely high miles and just put a new crate motor in.

As far as the interest rate, the worst part is it’s been so low so long that most younger folks seem to think that’s the reality and how it’s supposed to be. I don’t envy those purchasing a house at current rates compared to 7 yrs ago when they were nothing, but it could (and probably will be) worse. As John Chagnon pointed out in another post, it’s sure nice to see 4.5+% return on any money in CDs and high rate savings accounts compared to the almost zero for over a decade. I know, it’s not keeping up with inflation, but still.
Happy trapping! ScottW

I was pointing out that the interest rate affects more than just home mortgage rates it also affects operating loans, with all the new stuff my first question is it paid for but, as far as making money per acre is less also the inputs are higher so the losses are higher when they happen, back then you could make a good living on 320 acres of crop land today you need close to 3000 to do the same and as far as running old equipment the problem is manufacturers are discontinuing parts for the older machinery forcing people to buy newer equipment.

No one wants to sacrifice today for tomorrow ,, untold opportunity out there to build a great life ,, just gota work for it same as always,, Wasnt easy when i started out either ,, Has grown past my, and wife highest dreams ,, gota have the newest, biggest around no wonder the money doesnt go far enough ,, Takes years to build a life ,, Anyone younger than 50 has never seen high interest ,, spoiled

I'll take low prices and high interest rates over high prices and low interest rates any day.

If we are all in agreement that interest rates must increase to fix the issue, then why doesn't Powell raise them to 1980's levels?

Inflation is at anualized 3.15 percent. Actually c.d.s at 4 to 5 percent are above inflation which was normal prior to 2008.

Maybe dirt going by the posted numbers but on what I'm buying it's 30 to 60 %. So I don't believe the #s posted for some reason.

Because he is trying to walk a tightrope between killing inflation and causing a recession.

I believe they are doing fairly well for the situation they are in. I too think rates need to stay at this level for longer and maybe even a bit higher. That is why I believe they are now discussing a reduction in QT. If they cut the rate of QT in half it has a similar affect to reducing rates without actually doing that. They will still be reducing their balance sheet but not injecting new money into the system. In essence they are still reducing liquidity but at a slower rate.

The Fed is very concerned about causing credit markets to freeze up due to a lack of liquidity in the system. At the same time they can keeps rates at this level and hope it keeps a lid on the labor and housing markets.....which seems to be happening slowly.

The mystery that no one can solve is........what they call the R* (R star) rate. That is what is the rate that produces neither inflation nor recession. ..........in other words what rate is neither restrictive nor accommodative ? Loose versus tight money.

As Dirt said way up this thread we are just getting back to what used to be"normal" before 2008.

The "real" interest rate is somewhere in the 2.5- 3% range right now. That is the nominal rate( 5.25-5.50) minus the rate of inflation....lets say 3 for the sake of discussion.

Here is a chart of 1 year REAL interest rates going back to 1984. As you can see we are just approaching the levels that prevailed for many years.


The question that no one asked Powell two days ago is........If the economy is doing well, and if credit and labor markets are doing OK, and if inflation is declining ..............why lower interest rates ?

Sorry it's so small

Thank you Sir! Really appreciate your explanation White; makes sense. Chancey

trouble is that the 2 previous years were 6.5 and 7.0. So a dollar item goes from $1 to $1.06, then $1.14 the following year and in the last year with inflation at "only" 3.15 it goes to $1.18.
So in 3 years the price has inflated 18%.

And the numbers come from the gov't. Myself, I don't trust the gov't numbers, I think they will manipulate them to their advantage as much as they can get away with.

That aside, Yes inflation is going down but all previous inflation is not going away and thus we are inflating a larger previously inflated number every year.

Raising the interest rates is causing disinflation. What many people on these threads seem to want is deflation. People have been taught to think of deflation as always being bad. But is it, really?

In the case of a recession with massive layoffs, when demand falls because people either cannot afford to buy items, or are hesitant to spend due to the state of the economy, the resulting deflation is usually bad for the economy.

But what about what we're seeing now? Where, despite the increases in interest rates, the economy is still sailing along smoothly, partially at least because of technological advances like AI. If demand decreases due to supply increasing because of technological advances (and not because of people losing their income), then is the deflation that results from that still bad?

Debt can be used to make money, but if you don't have debt you don't require as much money. Then you can save and invest, rates won't matter to you when you don't use credit. Piece of mind is worth quite a lot.

Deflation is bad for a debt based economy.

Great for savers

IMHO one of the worst thing to happen to this country was artificially low rates

Why do you think the FED did it Steven?

Dont agree with you on this at all. What's a dependable truck? I drive an old truck and it's been very reliable. Its been paid off for years and Im money ahead because my choice. Maybe don't buy a truck if you can't afford one? Going into big debt for a lifestyle can really hurt you down the road. People get into trouble with instant gratification. The cost if things or time period have nothing to do with it.

Good grief. I said a dependable work truck. Not some vehicle that you can commute back and forth to within a 60 mile radius of your home.

Here, in the oil field, you need a work truck. One that pulls, hauls, and racks up mileage; can put a work bed/welding bed on etc. If you can buy a new one in your area for less than $1300/month, then I should move there, but probably won't be able to work cause there probably ain't no work. Basically three oil fields here in Texas area. Midland/Pecos Area, South Texas, and Northeast Texas/NW LA area.

If you live in the middle of Texas. Its a 5-8 hour drive one way. Then you find a place to live.

I guess things are way, way cheaper where ya'll live. Don't criticize me for telling you the realities of it here.

I pay for everything, and have never missed a payment. Owned and built two homes. Own three work trucks paid for. I make more money now than I have ever made in my life and I'm telling you, that I CANNOT take my current wages and buy my first home that I did years ago. The math don't work.

California, Samsung, Tesla has all moved into Central Texas. Land prices have more than doubled. Dodge RAM 2500 cummins cost have nearly doubled since 2014. So, don't pee down my back and tell me its raining!

I don't know much about working in the oil fields. So school me. If a 22 year old kid moved there today from backwoods Mississippi with his 2002 Ford F-250 Diesel he wouldn't be able to work for lack of a new truck? Would they just not hire him unless he has a new truck?