While shorter-term corrections are always to be expected, the macro factors support the view that, despite its awe-inspiring path upward in the past few months, the rally for gold hasn’t finished. While inflation isn’t contained, the Fed is expected to stay the course with planned 2024 rate cuts that will make dollar weakness even worse. This can only mean higher prices for gold against USD.
Reacting to warnings from Bloomerberg about ballooning debt and the powder keg of inflationary pressure, Peter Schiff said:
“We have a much bigger problem than they acknowledge — that’s why the price of gold is at a record high, that’s why it’s going to keep going up.”
With the overstretched and over-indebted American empire increasingly in a state of potentially terminal decline, BRICS countries are stacking hard assets with the hopes of overtaking the West as the next economic superpowers in the coming decades. While they have fiat currencies of their own, none have anything resembling the world reserve currency status enjoyed by the USD. Buying the top even as gold continues upward tells a story of their future visions of US dollar chaos.
Besides, if you expect the dollar to fail, as dominant fiat currencies historically have, then “the top” doesn’t matter — if the bottom for fiat is zero, then there’s no meaningful top for hard assets like gold in fiat terms. And just as you didn’t want to be the last schmo holding seashells when no sane person would give you even the tiniest sliver of gold in exchange, it’s wise of central banks to avoid being the last ones trying to trade worthless paper for gold that, when fiat is functionally dead, will be infinitely more valuable.
Because when you zoom out far enough, the exchange price of fiat currencies always reverts to its true value of zero.