A friend turned me on this betting website last week. It allows a person to place bets on various markets. Some of which are politics and economics. Not promoting it by any means, but I think its useful news. Whats nice is that it will show you the total amount wagered. For example, users have bet a total of $110,000,000 on the general election. I think this is more useful than a poll as it is non-partisan and people are putting their money where their mouth is.

https://kalshi.com/






ol' dad

I know who is going to win. It's weather or not the winner is cheated out of the spot......again.

Exactly. Who's counting the votes?

Trump!!!

Trump2024

couldn't that just be telling you one group has more disposable income?

One group has us 25 trillion in debt...

Not really. People that are broke and people that are rich all like to bet. It's just the broke ones were bad betters. LOL

Ol dad

The polls have trump ahead slightly or slightly behind in the swing states. Trump has always done better than the polls so far in the last two elections. I would bet trump at this point.

I don't know what I am but I don't like betting

"Democrats who are in high spirits over Vice President Harris’s debate performance and buoyed by her rise in the polls have one doubt that nags at them above all others.

It’s the knowledge that former President Trump has consistently outperformed his poll numbers in the past — and the fear that he might do so again.

Given that many polls already have the battleground states balanced on a knife-edge, the idea of history repeating itself is a Democratic nightmare."

Source: The Hill.

Betters know trends.

I said the same in 2020 until they quit counting in the middle of the night.

They try it this time it could get ugly.

He outperformed the polls in 2020. Things are looking good and yet you people are still nuts.

It feels like Trump has some momentum. It will obviously depend on turnout but I think he will win. I also think the bookies and mobsters have a good idea of how to make odds.

Interestingly, I ran into a buddy of mine today. Farmer. Hunter. Southern Baptist. Mid 50's. Lifelong Republican. He was headed to vote early--for Harris. A neighbor of mine (same general description) is also voting for Harris. These are two people that statistically mean nothing, but they are indicative of a fatigue factor with Trump. They both said they are tired of him and the drama. Again, statistically meaningless but interesting to me.

It makes perfect sense to me ^^^

Lifelong never voted for a democrat. Never makes any sense no matter how bad the republican is to vote Democrat. If the republican is that offensive ( Lisa Murkowski) don't vote.

My feeling is Trump has the momentum and will win. Between the popular vote and electoral college I could see him winning one or both, barely winning or a solid victory. 3-4 weeks ago I thought Harris had a slightly better chance of winning. I can understand if someone does not want to vote for Trump but given the story of the above two individuals they would be better off not voting at all or, novel idea=third party. Now all of my thoughts are also not balanced given that I live in rural MO and only check the Fox News website. Time will tell.

Exactly. I have a good friend who has been a staunch Republican his entire life. Late 50s. Told me the other day he was going to vote for Harris because he couldn't stand Trump and that everything that comes out of his mouth was a lie. I said why not just sit this one out or write someone in, instead of voting for someone who is worse? He didn't really have an answer. It leads me to believe people are so personally offended by Trump that by voting for Harris they feel like they are getting some kind of revenge.

But back to the original topic of the betting line. What are the flaws and do you think this is more accurate than a telephone poll?

Ol dad

It's not about accuracy. Trump has historically out performed the polls by roughly two percent. Since the polls have him with a slight lead in some swing states and a slight loss in others the odds are he will win based on history. I'd bet the trend! Mind you I bet on Biden before the Kamal switch. Sometimes you lose.

I don't disagree with your reasoning. I won't vote for Trump but I sure as heck won't vote for Harris. I'll vote for the Libertarian Party again because I hope they someday run viable candidates--the candidate sucks (literally) on some issues but he has no chance of winning. I'll mostly vote Republican down ballot (we have some nuts I won't vote for) and for Judges.

I don't know enough about Vegas to explain or understand the flaws in the betting line.