I agree. Short interest in USO has jumped from 0.5% on 2/26 to nearly 20% today. So the larger players are also betting on a pull back or hedging other long positions

Yes oil prices may well decline in soon and maybe quickly, but from an economic aspect there will be much higher prices built into the goods and services that will be used in the short and medium term. High usage season is coming up very fast. On emonth of higher prices is 1/12th of the year and that adds cost to about 8% to the cost. So in a consumer economy as we are the real prices to be paid will be on the lower end of the income range where energy costs already make up a higher percentage of the expenses.

Bryce

"Is the US creeping towards a 3% inflation regime?"

Maybe

I’m sorry white I didn’t mean all cash but reduce the amount in circulation, it was a comment made on market to market and I found this article, I will change my other post to say reduce.

https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/html/en-US/Kevin-Warsh-Lead-Policy-Implications-2/5/2026,53202

This guy is a fruit but I been listening to him b/c he seems to make a lot of sense. Interested in what you think.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bDJ0Ebk0PA0

Oh that makes more sense.
Thanks Bob.

Reduce the amount of cash and circulation?

As in deflation?

No. He seems to be advocating continued QT. Reducing FED'S balance sheet.

He wanted to reduce the amount of physical cash in circulation, and the more I’ve read they won’t reissue bonds, while at the same time cut interest rates I would imagine that’s the way to keep inflation and not have deflation, I also saw were he thinks AI will play some role in inflation.

Good thing he's only 1 vote of 12....IF he gets confirmed.....

Reducing money in circulation... GOOD.

Cutting interest rates more.....HORRIBLE.

Not good for investors, borrowers or both?

How about the economy?

Assuming you were talking to me.....

For the country as a whole...

Frankly I don't care about investors (I am one) or borrowers (I am not).

I care about our country.

Hope you like $7/doz eggs and $25/lb beef....

I went yesterday and bought several hundred dollars of beef because I can see what is coming.

Hint: It's inflation..... again

But ya know what, hippie?? I don't care because I DO think we need to take Iran out....

I'll pay higher prices in the grocery store for that........

Yeah, that's right...... I APPROVE of what Trump is doing here just like I approve of 90% of the things he does........

For whatever reason, you just wanna focus on the one or 2 things I do not approve of.........

But if you think inflation is coming ( ignoring the fact inflation is currently above objective) would it not be the FED's job to combat it?

Of course. I'd not be surprised to see a hike at the next meeting.....