White, Angela and others who comment on financial topics:

How will the markets close the quarter?

Dow and NASDAQ are down over 10 percent from recent highs. S&P is getting close. It's been an ugly last month or so.

What happens this week?

Everyone please follow the rules.

Let me dust-off my crystal ball.
I'm not too optimistic.

Most of the downward stock movement has been triggered by the initiation of the foreign war and involvement and issues regarding ICE. To me what we have not seen is the market reacting much to the downward movement in new job creation and layoffs and increasing inflation. If the war continues for another 2-6 weeks we may see the US economy and jobs impacting the market as well.
If the war would end soon there would be a quick market gain which would be welcome by all and especially the WH and GOP.
Bryce

This is a tough one for me BC, simply because I have not been following the markets long enough to be able to guess how they will react to each new step in the war.

As of now, crude is still over $100 a barrel, there is talk of deploying ten thousand more troops...

My gut says we will not see any sort of rally over the next two days. I also don't feel we'll see a drastic drop over that time. So I guess my hazy crystal ball expects modest declines over the next 2 days.

Now, of course, if during the next 2 days Iran and the US reach some sort of deal, then that all changes. The market would rally then.

The quarter?

Markets are long term thinking.

I have no guess as to how things will shake out over the next two trading days but I am not optimistic. Also remember that the market is closed next Friday so the previous days may be a little more volatile than normal.

Equity markets are terrible at predicting or reacting to geopolitical events. I would pay close attention to the bond market instead. I agree with Bryce that the market has not reacted badly enough to the events in Iran.
Yes I think any "good" news might set off a brief rally but I suspect it will be short, sharp, and volatile. What we have been seeing in equities has been a series of lower highs and lower lows. Not a recipe for a sustained rally.

Looking at all the negatives..high valuations, the war, midterms, interest rates, unemployment, inflation expectations, budget deficits, national debt, and last week's failed treasury auction..................it is not encouraging IMO.

I would be watching the 10 year treasury note. If yields get above 4.5% or if the 30 year gets over 5%..........look out below.
I would not be surprised to see SPX fall as low as 6150. If that happens I would be a buyer...........but there would be a lot of pain at that level.

If things resolve in the middle east, oil will drop some but I think it will take many months for the increases we have already seen to move through the world economy.
This past Friday I bought 501 gallons of gasoline at $11.08 per gallon because I believe it will be more expensive than that here by June when the fuel barge arrives.

We have recently been hearing some former Federal reserve "doves" begin mentioning raising rates rather than cutting them. While I think that would be prudent, the market overall will not like that prospect.

And there is that wild card about AI destroying jobs or eliminating software. I don't have an opinion on those issues but eventually that question needs to be answered in order for a very large market sector to stabilize. The sooner that happens the better.

Caution is the order of the day IMO. Have a buy list handy and keep some dry powder.

I guess we should all just ignore monthly and quarterly data--GDP, inflation, unemployment, etc.

And, stop reviewing quarterly filings by public companies, 10Qs.

And, stop managing our investments daily, monthly, quarterly and annually--and beyond.

I prefer paying attention.

Excellent as always and appreciated, sir.

11.08? I don't feel as bad buying fuel.

Not when you have options expiring this Thursday they're not.

I don't expect anything drastic either way. I expect lackluster performance over the next couple months barring any real changes in the situation with Iran. A good change there the markets could recover quickly, a bad change and it could fall drastically. But I don't expect any sudden changes on that front for some time. And certain sectors will perform very well within this downturn. My Robinhood "play" account is only down 1.53% over the past month and is up on every other metric. I haven't checked my retirement accounts, but they reflect the market as a whole much more so I assume they have lost a significant amount. I'm not worried it will come back.

I am 25% back in......waiting before I spend more.....jk

Ken, how long will 500 gallons of gas last you?

Probably a year if I'm careful

If you go by the charts, I expect the S&P to have a down month in April, and then we rally into May. I’m watching Bitcoin because that fell before the markets. Im still in data center stocks (even though locals are against them) and bitcoin

There is high potential for it to go bad,,, very bad

The time frame remains to be seen

But when it does,,,,,



Plan accordingly!!!!!

Spjones the free money is the worst thing that could happen, I suspect you and most others here would agree, and Angela just keep rolling the options eventually you might come out ahead.

Tommorow .i will probably buy some milk , I thinki am good with sausage, i will fry a couple eggs,..i will grab thechainsaw and finish cutting rounds and haul out.,..Ill feel good about that.

Where's Uncle JBryd ....??? When you need him

buy and hold is my plan...

wasn't it too long ago it was4400 ?

IMO the market is still overvalued. I would rather see a gradual decline as outlined in the chart above then a drastic crash.

about 3 years ago

i am still of the opinion, the war, thus high oil prices, will be short lived. If ground troops are deployed, that sentiment will change.

I’m one that would rather see it fall fast, it comes from the ag world, let the market fall fast and find a bottom quick then the rebuild can happen.

Well, these are the current headlines: Trump Weighs Military Operation to Extract Iran’s Uranium

Sitting here watching the futures. Crude is ticking up, all three indices are ticking down.

I hope he doesn't. Keep destroying targets and let the Iranians clean up the regime remnants.

three years ago,..is that concerning?,..I don't know,..i'm still learning,..my thoughts are it is still an upward trend?

Whatever happens the market will be in turmoil. There is just no clear direction for the economy.

It will be ugly tomorrow. And likely all next week, (no Friday trading). I am hoping Trump says SOMETHING positive, and is believable enough to be interpreted by the market as time for the TACO trade, thus creating a dead cat bounce that will allow me to exit a few positions that were short term oriented, but with the likely price of oil in the intermediate future considerably higher than what I hoped, are not positions I want to be in at this time.
Unless something really big, such as say 50 tankers sail through the straight un-molested, and believable negotiations are headline, I will not be buying anything next week.

Grains are up metals are down a pretty good guess the funds have moved to the grains to make up some lost money and safe haven for inflation.

the economy should relax , take a breath,,..we can pull out at any time and claim victory,.our only purpose now is to ensure a free flowof oil on the world market.

I’d be crying in my beer if I had to rely on the stock market any time soon. It’s going down and will continue to go down until the Strait of Hormuz is pass-able again. And the president stops committing support for all the skirmishes around the world. The US is well over $25 trillion in the hole. We are a debtor nation with no end in sight. Let’s stop coming up with excuses to spend and get our financial house in order before China, India etc start cashing in their bonds and we have nothing to give them.

Our projection on the world stage is not one of indecison,it serves no purpose , we have goals and we will accomplish those!

Feel free to exhalt it in it's exhoberance , it will pay dividens.

you do realize we are winning?

Im buying on the way down. No clue where the bottom is but hold white knowledge in as high regard as possible. Darn privileged to know him.

Privileged to know the t man crew infact. Have some i considered great friends even though they may not realize it.

Oddly... futures seem to be improving a bit. Not sure why.....

Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.....sayeth Buffet. It apppears the time to buy is approaching, if not here already.

Buffett never advocated buying anything simply because it was going down due to fear alone. Never.

Make it make sense. LOL



Earlier today Nasdaq was down 0.88%, with DOW and S&P both down in the high 0.60s.

What's the old saying "Buy the dips". The fifty year S&P growth chart is worth looking at, the market always goes higher with hiccups along the way. The same fifty year time frame with all it's ups and downs has an 11.5% overall average growth rate by percentage. Albert Einstein is credited with saying "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world, meaning stay invested in quality. That's the hard part.

Jobs have me concerned. Worst outlook for college graduates since Covid. Many firms are retaining what help they have and not hiring new. They are holding tight to see how this all pans out. Also have an eye on our farmers. Planting season is almost here and the inputs are going to be more expensive which is ultimately going to show up at the table in increased prices. Good reasons to be concerned about the economy.

Agree on jobs. The unemployment numbers do not reflect the real world.

Just some anecdotal market trivia......

For the last month Mondays have been UP days.

Also, on a statistical basis............a monday following a quarterly expiration friday, which we just had.........shows a 70 % chance of moving the opposite direction of friday.

We may close UP today but I wouldn't count on it holding. Bond yields are dropping and that is helping stocks but it also points out that people may be looking for a place to hide from equities.

A job is not hard to find in the real world. I think the numbers reflect the real world. Labor supply is shrinking. No need for job growth as far as balance between labor and employers.

Thanks, Ken. Always happy to hear any thoughts you have on the markets. I know I sure didn't see this little rally coming this morning, but I'm glad it did as it allowed me to get out of the positions I had expiring this week.

Oftentimes rallies during selloffs are short, sharp & volatile. At least they can provide an opportunity to close marginal positions.

Keep it up. Love the info. Thank you, sir.

Pay attention then. What will your paying attention exactly do to change any outcome or influence future global markets? Particularly on a weekly basis.
The American markets have always grown obviously. They hold, they drop, they correct, they blast up. In the end they keep Marching upwards.
9r is spot on.

Osky

Ken,
how did McGrath get to 11 bucks? Ruby was/is I think, 7.75. Did McGrath have to fly in some fuel? Doesn't McGrath suffer from low water level some years and barge doesn't make it to McGrath?
I haven't bought gas lately but heating fuel is now 4.95 here in Fairbanks. It was under 3 bucks last summer and we'll under 4 a month ago. Might be the year to stock up on wood in rural Ak.

If you're invested in index funds such as QQQ or SPY, or to a lesser extent other ETFs as well, you can pretty much hold em and forget em assuming you won't need the invested money anytime soon.

But when you invest in shares of individual companies I feel it becomes prudent to keep a bit closer eye on your investments. While it's true that the market as a whole keeps marching upward, not all individual companies do. Companies DO go bankrupt you know. Looking over the 10-Qs, or at the very least the 10-Ks of individual companies you are invested in seems pretty important to me.

Also, remember that not everyone utilizes the market in the same way. While I have some shares of QQQ and other ETFs that I rarely ever even glance at as my intent is to hold them long term, the majority of the money I have in the market is invested in shorter term options with monthly, and sometimes even weekly expirations. When dealing with options, futures, or other derivatives you'd best be keeping a close eye on that market on a DAILY basis....

Good question Mike. I can't tell ya how or when the price jump occurred. I am not aware of them flying any in here recently but it's possible I guess.

You're right about low water in the spring sometimes but I don't think that will happen this year judging by the snow pack. We hit 32 yesterday so spring is on the way unfortunately.

This is more about the US retaining the dollar as the petrodollar with Venezuela now being controlled as far as oil is concerned and the Iranians striking Lng gas production sites reducing 17 percent of the worlds LNG gas the world will turn to North America for those needs keeping the dollar as the main trading currency for oil and LNG. If we can continue to choke Irans money supply they will give up the uranium or starving people will revolt and over throw the regime. We may have a rough stock year but let’s face it the last 4 years without a correction and the growth we have seen it isn’t out of the realm that we lose 10-15 percent. The thing is without pensions the retirement money has to be saved and that money is going to keep rolling into the markets my prediction by year end the market will end up 5 percent up.

I'm an almost 69 yr.old retired guy. Started my first 401K in 1992 at the age of 35. Changed employers a few times, thus, starting 401s with them. When I left the first 401 employer I rolled the money into a Fidelity IRA. Retired in April 2022. Had/have a rollover and Roth IRA both with Fidelity. Around 2016 I decided Fidelity can manage those accounts better than I can. So now I pay Fidelity 0.89 percent per year to manage my accounts. I'm still reluctant to believe I can manage the accounts better than some professional managers can.
Nowadays my account values pretty much track with the DOW and SP500.
I'm satisfied so far with the Fidelity management. Not real interested in trying to beat the market!!
All my employment has been non union private sector. No pensions for me!

There was the Dead Cat Bounce I was expecting. Lasted from about 8:30 am to 10:00 am PST.

when doe the "Golden age" end? LOL

This does not sound very good. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-ea...nz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I’m thinking this talk is force Europe and others into this conflict, but if they don’t it’ll keep driving oil prices up.

Also outside the box thought I looked on google earth and it looks like an area north of Dubai that could be an place for a canal to be cut then the straight becomes worthless, if this would the case it may stabilize the markets for a long time.

I think there in more at play than dealing with Iran. I bet we and up controlling the flow of oil and us that a leverage against chimney and their control of most of the supply of rare earth minerals evening thing out a bit.

Also will help keeping the dollar as the world currency.

But that just a thought from a factory worker.

Obviously my statement was in very broad context, but for those of us that invest in the market and have well thought out plans of what to purchase.... and have been waiting for this selloff, that is exactly what he advocated for. Make your play on the fears of others as the prices will be lower. You can count yourself crazy if you dont think Buffet is planning his moves for this downturn. Hes not huddled up the corner crying or getting ready to jump off a roof....

Actually he’s retired

Hasn’t had much to do with the company for years

Actually, he has stated as recently as yesterday that he is still very involved with investment decisions even in retirement. I reckon folks like him cant just quit cold turkey.....

He’s the brand,,,

Of course their going to keep rolling him out

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/31/war...nts-at-berkshire-flags-tiny-new-buy.html

Sp, sounds like a little more than an occasional roll out. At any rate, not my intention to get in a whizzing match over investment philosophies. I always enjoy reading others ideas on here, including yours. I will, however, stick to Buffet's words of wisdom for those that are in a position to invest in these tumultuous times. When the rest are nervous, Im getting excited....

So did any buy anything and will this up tick continue ?

I was surprised to see thing go up a little.

I did nibble a little yesterday. Had some orders fill in tsm, jepq, and brk b. I was looking forward to seeing more fill as things keep dropping when I looked today and was disappointed. But there is always tomorrow.

Good rebound today..much to the chagrin of those with TDS

Sitting back on my gold I bought in 2020. Well what I didn't sell when it went to 5200. Sold enough to recoop my investment. Rest is for grand daughters. Don't care if it's 10,000 an oz or 500 bucks. I won't be here to worry about it. I got my money back........
BUY BUY BUY Then CRY CRY CRY.
All I hear is how much people lost last month. Nope they still have their initial investment, so they haven't lost a thing unless they sold at a lower rate than they bought.

That gurgling sound is the Idiotic Iran war sucking your economy down the toilet.

Ur thoughts and opions haven't been to good the last few years on wars. You should probably hold ur peace.

I am seldom if ever wrong and you know it.

Which year did u say the Ukraine/ Russia war would be over by the end of summer

The market is sensing that the war may be winding down from the administration's viewpoint. The most recent polls show the l owest approval ratings ever. He may want to try to bring that back along with doing things that the market likes. He is already stating that due to killing most of the high level leaders there is regime change in his mind and that may well be his back door way of claiming victory and descalating the war efforts. There will be fairly long term tails, but if there will be a slowing or a turn around the market will respond. What we don't know if the lagging job creation, inflation and lowering economic growth will cause the market to be very cautious.
Our gas prices rose 20 cents per gallon today, so the impacts may not have hit their high points yet. With spring coming the demand for fuel to till and plant 300 plus million acres will keep supplies really tight
Lots of petrol used in all the chemicals and making N fertilizers too.
Bryce

Myself I have been looking forward to some dips. The markets have been over valued and dips are all just wealth building opportunities. Value on a screen goes up and down shares continuously increase along with value over time.

I one the birth right loto being born in the US to US parents. It must be tough to be in our shadow and in an in in significance country on the world stage.

Hear hear

You should stay out of wars,
Your trackrecord is not very good,I think the only one you ever won on your own was grenada,a island smaller than a trapline,lol.
your problem is your people dont have the stomach to see it thru when you start one.This one is a friggen disaster.
FYI Canucke have never lost a war.

Have u ever been in a war on your own and have you ever won a war that the USA hasn't also been in on?

Canada has never stood on their own feet and has very little military capabilities.

They have great people and soldiers but not the resources. And you never had to make it a priority since the US would not allow anyone to ever attack one of our neighbors.

Keep living in denial to fact. At least you finally stepped up and started meeting your nato defense spending obligations but only after Trum said meet them or we won't protect you.

So it takes a threat for you to keep your obligations your word means little to nothing. Even with your recent increase we spend 15 times more.

Markets will recover and blow past all time highs. In the morning you will still be a Canadian a subject that need a permission slip to own an air gun. Still in the US shadow. Fingers crossed some in your country will break away and get their independence.

Of course.
The French Canadians in lower Canada whipped you bad in the late 1700s and the English Canadians in Upper Canada sent you packing back south a bit later in the early 1800s.
You learned your lesson well and we will do it again when the time comes.
You barefoot hillbillies wouldnt last two days on the ground here in summer or winter.The blackflies would drive you insane and your toes would fall off in winter.

You cant even protect yourself,lol,If you couldnt beat a bunch of camel riders or jungle porch monkeys you would have a nightmare here
And bombing wont do it since there is nothing to bomb.You would have to take us on guerilla style and I have seen enough of you in the bush here to know you are pretty soft.

You did that with British back up and a new nation. Got any claim to fame in the last 200 years?

Not that we would ever want anything but good for our neighbors if you think the us couldn't wipe out 90% of your very congested population and infrastructure without putting boots on the ground your very out of touch with the two countries capabilities.

I seen your capabilities you are a laughing stock on the world stage,,lol.
You are good at blowing stuff up but that wont win a guerilla war,you should know that by now.
Youneed boots on the ground and lots of body bags coming home and your soft society doesnt have the stomach for that.
Just go in blow a bunch of stuff up spend tons of money and then nothing changes for the better,you just get more of these third world countries hating on you.

This one’s for Boco….

I was hoping for bit more modern and relative examples.

We fight defensive wars we dont start wars like you do.
Thats why you lose all yours and we win all ours.No one has attacked us since your folly back in the day-they know better.

Thats me with the axe,lol.
I wish walleyed was still with us, I miss that guy.

Well in the 1812- war Canada went down and burnt your White House...... NOW you got someone on the inside now tearing it along with the rose garden down/up/all/around.....is that a good enough example

Then that bunch came to New Orleans....

I believe we handed Canada a few whippins as pay back.

This tread is about market predictions not about some Canadians little man syndrome.

Just natural Evolution

When the money chasers start self medicating with lead pills I know it's about time to invest. In the mean time might as well stir up Mr. Freedom.lol.

…. Yes Boco’s back ! lol

The gun thing is kinda funny and I will admit, ridiculous at times. But...at the same time, In Indiana can you walk into a gun shop and buy a shotgun with a 10" barrel and walk out in 5 minutes like me or do you have to comply with NFA rules and have fingerprints taken, photos taken, pay a $200 tax and wait for approval before taking possession? I don't know for sure about Indiana, that's why i'm asking, but I know in many states you can't roll into a gun shop and walk out with that thing like I can minutes later for the cost of the gun only. Apples and Oranges is my point I guess. There's also a lot of irony in "your word means little to nothing" but I won't get into that whole debate because what's the point?

Come on, now. The War of 1812 stuff hasn't been rehashed for at least 6 months. It was time.

Bullies that start fights invariably have their arses handed to them on a platter.
Hi Savell.

How did this thread get so far off track? Proof of TDS!

Bocos back and we got to have our fun and take a few shots while hes here

why would you want a short barreled shotgun?

The rule on short barreled shotguns and mufflers are not the only completely ridiculous firearm rules our govt has invented FWIW.

That is what I like about you Boco.......Nothing, nothing at all.

… I bet Randy Weaver regrets it

Feds finally had to admit in court Weavers shotgun was a legal length

… his only crime was wearing the wrong shirt

I ain’t in Kansas. I spend a lot of time where I could bump into a bear that doesn’t know he should be afraid, I and my kids cut cougar tracks in the snow at times, a nearby neighbour has even shot one in his yard so…….

Would you ask a guy in the mountains there why they might want a handgun? I mean I can’t have that so…