Make it make sense. LOL



Earlier today Nasdaq was down 0.88%, with DOW and S&P both down in the high 0.60s.

What's the old saying "Buy the dips". The fifty year S&P growth chart is worth looking at, the market always goes higher with hiccups along the way. The same fifty year time frame with all it's ups and downs has an 11.5% overall average growth rate by percentage. Albert Einstein is credited with saying "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world, meaning stay invested in quality. That's the hard part.

Jobs have me concerned. Worst outlook for college graduates since Covid. Many firms are retaining what help they have and not hiring new. They are holding tight to see how this all pans out. Also have an eye on our farmers. Planting season is almost here and the inputs are going to be more expensive which is ultimately going to show up at the table in increased prices. Good reasons to be concerned about the economy.

Agree on jobs. The unemployment numbers do not reflect the real world.

Just some anecdotal market trivia......

For the last month Mondays have been UP days.

Also, on a statistical basis............a monday following a quarterly expiration friday, which we just had.........shows a 70 % chance of moving the opposite direction of friday.

We may close UP today but I wouldn't count on it holding. Bond yields are dropping and that is helping stocks but it also points out that people may be looking for a place to hide from equities.

A job is not hard to find in the real world. I think the numbers reflect the real world. Labor supply is shrinking. No need for job growth as far as balance between labor and employers.

Thanks, Ken. Always happy to hear any thoughts you have on the markets. I know I sure didn't see this little rally coming this morning, but I'm glad it did as it allowed me to get out of the positions I had expiring this week.

Oftentimes rallies during selloffs are short, sharp & volatile. At least they can provide an opportunity to close marginal positions.

Keep it up. Love the info. Thank you, sir.

Pay attention then. What will your paying attention exactly do to change any outcome or influence future global markets? Particularly on a weekly basis.
The American markets have always grown obviously. They hold, they drop, they correct, they blast up. In the end they keep Marching upwards.
9r is spot on.

Osky

Ken,
how did McGrath get to 11 bucks? Ruby was/is I think, 7.75. Did McGrath have to fly in some fuel? Doesn't McGrath suffer from low water level some years and barge doesn't make it to McGrath?
I haven't bought gas lately but heating fuel is now 4.95 here in Fairbanks. It was under 3 bucks last summer and we'll under 4 a month ago. Might be the year to stock up on wood in rural Ak.

If you're invested in index funds such as QQQ or SPY, or to a lesser extent other ETFs as well, you can pretty much hold em and forget em assuming you won't need the invested money anytime soon.

But when you invest in shares of individual companies I feel it becomes prudent to keep a bit closer eye on your investments. While it's true that the market as a whole keeps marching upward, not all individual companies do. Companies DO go bankrupt you know. Looking over the 10-Qs, or at the very least the 10-Ks of individual companies you are invested in seems pretty important to me.

Also, remember that not everyone utilizes the market in the same way. While I have some shares of QQQ and other ETFs that I rarely ever even glance at as my intent is to hold them long term, the majority of the money I have in the market is invested in shorter term options with monthly, and sometimes even weekly expirations. When dealing with options, futures, or other derivatives you'd best be keeping a close eye on that market on a DAILY basis....

Good question Mike. I can't tell ya how or when the price jump occurred. I am not aware of them flying any in here recently but it's possible I guess.

You're right about low water in the spring sometimes but I don't think that will happen this year judging by the snow pack. We hit 32 yesterday so spring is on the way unfortunately.

This is more about the US retaining the dollar as the petrodollar with Venezuela now being controlled as far as oil is concerned and the Iranians striking Lng gas production sites reducing 17 percent of the worlds LNG gas the world will turn to North America for those needs keeping the dollar as the main trading currency for oil and LNG. If we can continue to choke Irans money supply they will give up the uranium or starving people will revolt and over throw the regime. We may have a rough stock year but let’s face it the last 4 years without a correction and the growth we have seen it isn’t out of the realm that we lose 10-15 percent. The thing is without pensions the retirement money has to be saved and that money is going to keep rolling into the markets my prediction by year end the market will end up 5 percent up.

I'm an almost 69 yr.old retired guy. Started my first 401K in 1992 at the age of 35. Changed employers a few times, thus, starting 401s with them. When I left the first 401 employer I rolled the money into a Fidelity IRA. Retired in April 2022. Had/have a rollover and Roth IRA both with Fidelity. Around 2016 I decided Fidelity can manage those accounts better than I can. So now I pay Fidelity 0.89 percent per year to manage my accounts. I'm still reluctant to believe I can manage the accounts better than some professional managers can.
Nowadays my account values pretty much track with the DOW and SP500.
I'm satisfied so far with the Fidelity management. Not real interested in trying to beat the market!!
All my employment has been non union private sector. No pensions for me!

There was the Dead Cat Bounce I was expecting. Lasted from about 8:30 am to 10:00 am PST.

when doe the "Golden age" end? LOL

This does not sound very good. https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-ea...nz&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I’m thinking this talk is force Europe and others into this conflict, but if they don’t it’ll keep driving oil prices up.

Also outside the box thought I looked on google earth and it looks like an area north of Dubai that could be an place for a canal to be cut then the straight becomes worthless, if this would the case it may stabilize the markets for a long time.