Or is beef being turned into something only the elite can afford?
Tyson has announced the closing of 3 more plants. There is no shortage in the stores but they say there is.

The news wants you scared.

A year or so ago there were plenty of articles about the drought causing hay shortages, the beef were unprofitable to raise, so ranchers were selling off their herds below the level needed to maintan the herds.

That (unfortunately for the ranchers) kept prices relatively low all things considered, and many articles stated as indisputable fact that the prices would go up drastically (because of the herd reduction).

Google for: us beef herd size chart

So here we are.

We bought half a beef during the herd reduction phase.

Stop buying beef, then there will be a surplus. Pork chops on a bun.

I’m sure the price of diesel will make for herd recruitment. (Sarcasm)

apparently everything comes thru the strait of Hormuz

I have a friend that is a rancher near Gillette WY. The ranch has been in the family for generations. He has never seen drought conditions this bad. He has to go to North Dakota for feed. Told me they are selling all of there calves in 2 weeks and if they don't get significant snow this winter they will sell the whole herd. In his area at least, the drought and beef shortages are very real.

Everyone trying to capitalize on the tariffs. I’m eating a lot more fish that I catch. They can flush their overpriced stuff. If everyone could do something similar prices would come down or rot on the racks

Yes the national beef herd is at an all time low. Drought has caused a lot of people to sell off their cattle. When trying to grow a herd it is a long process.

Beefs been high for years here. I dont buy much but someone is cause the price certainly hasn't come down. Supply and demand doesn't seem to work for beef prices.

Yeah!!! There is a real shortage you can believe that or twist it any way you want but there is a shortage.

IN what way? WHERE ? EVERY supermarket is packed to the rim with every beef product. Poor cattleman. ONLY ones crying are cattle flippers. They are paying 4 times more for feeder steers and heifers . So profit is lower. BUT the ones that are raising cattle every time a baby calf hits the ground that's 2 grand laying there.
Someone mention rancher going to have to sell his entire herd because of drought. How many head? OLd cow around here is 4,000 bucks. he running 1000 head? Bless his heart. He just going to get 4 million. If the family has had that ranch that long surely there's not much debt. Heck lease the land to outfitters. They paying 50 bucks an acre for hunting rights. OH WAIT bet he already is doing that.


Guess there's a gas shortage as well. But that's another story.

Cost 1.5 million here to get started with 100 cows. Cost $1,200 to produce a calf if your being honest with your numbers. Sell calves for $1,800 each and that's a 4% return on investment.

How many guys are looking to spend 1.5 million to buy themselves a job that pays 4% return on investment?

Though there is less cattle the amount of meat produced has been consistent, demand is up and that drives pricing.

You may be correct. But none of the examples where ranchers "getting started"
Guy I fish with has had between 150 -200 cows for decades. He is making so much money right now he can't spend it fast enough.

He sold 11 heifers last week brought right at 27000. averaged around 600 - 650lbs 4.16 lb Beef is no different than anything else. Long as people pay it they will sell it at the highest prices.

I have some friends in ranching country in the Sandhills and in the panhandle of Nebraska I talk with often. There is a real shortage and with the high price of live beef on the hoof many cattlemen are thinning out the herd and not keeping many replacement Heifers to build the cow numbers back up. Also the drought has played a huge part in reduction of breeding herd number. And in certain areas the fire has caused many ranchers to sell off cow/calf pairs some go back to the ranch... many go to slaughter. I have been in contact with a couple owners of some fairly large beef finishing feedlots and they say there is a point somewhere in the market where the high prices actually hurt the future of beef production in the USA. And from my own observation thru out my life when certain meats get too high in the stores customers go to cheaper cuts or cheaper other meats altogether.. And sometimes it's hard to get those customers back! The cattle herds take a long time to recover. Hog and chicken market can recover rather quickly. And that's when we aren't dealing with super high inflation.

Smart Chicken (owned by Tyson) is putting up 80 more chicken houses just north of here in Nemaha County. Tyson also has 20% of the pork processing facilities.

How do you come up with these numbers.iam not saying your not correct but I would like a breakdown.

The imported beef for 90 days gets us past the mid term elections. They will be tariff free, which to me states inspite of all that has been said by our administration, tariffs do raise costs. Supposed to be sold at 25% less then the going market price. Are they going to use a national or regional average to determine that price? I am sure beef producers are really happy about this and also the feed lots that will have fat cattle going to market the next 3-4 months after they paid 320-360 per CWT for feeders.

Bryce

Speed beef replaced beef at my place several years ago...even before the price hike of beef. Supplement with home raised pork and walleye filets and I dont even miss beef. If on occasion we want to grab a couple ribeyes for the grill or a brisket for the smoker, we do... I come from a farming background, but not a lot of sympathy for farmers since they started getting all their subsidies (welfare). If they cant make a go of it on their own, time to find something else to make a living at....

Trump is making a mistake, he should stay out of this and get Iran deal settled and inflation would drop with gas prices. Beef gets to expensive people will switch proteins, let them.