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Re: 40 trillion
[Re: Steven 49er]
#8653520
08/26/26 02:27 PM
08/26/26 02:27 PM
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Joined: May 2010
MN
Steven 49er
OP
trapper
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OP
trapper
Joined: May 2010
MN
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I agree with sp. Of you aren't feeling it you're lucky. My lifestyle hasn't changed much but it's changed. Thankfully I'm not raising a young family.
"Gold is money, everything else is just credit" JP Morgan
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Re: 40 trillion
[Re: Steven 49er]
#8653735
08/29/26 11:52 AM
08/29/26 11:52 AM
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Joined: Dec 2010
Armpit, ak
Dirt
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Dec 2010
Armpit, ak
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"Concerning Fiscal Math CBO?s latest outlook shows a deficit of about $1.9 trillion in 2026 and publicly held debt rising to about 120 percent of GDP by 2036, a level that would have been treated as a national emergency in prior eras. The story underneath is even more disturbing. Mandatory spending and compounding interest costs drive the long-run trajectory while Congress repeatedly turns budgeting into a cliffhanger, manufacturing shutdown threats and continuing resolutions over a shrinking slice of the budget. By 2036, discretionary spending will make up less than 20 percent of total federal outlays, yet it will likely still dominate the public drama.
That mismatch is the reason why the appropriations process, which determines discretionary spending, feels like constant crisis without producing long-run control. Net interest costs are projected to surge from roughly $1.0 trillion in 2026 to roughly $2.1 trillion by 2036, rising as a share of the economy from 3.3 percent of GDP to 4.6 percent. Those numbers matter because they describe a government that is steadily losing fiscal room to maneuver. When interest becomes one of the fastest-growing items in the budget, policy choices start to narrow even before anyone votes for austerity.
Despite these warnings, Congress continues to spend a disproportionate amount of time and political energy on annual appropriations brinkmanship. Shutdown threats dominate coverage, agencies plan around continuing resolutions, and the public is told the budget fight is underway, as if the main drivers of long-run debt are being tackled. They are not. The annual appropriations brawl is increasingly a fight over a smaller component, while the larger forces keep moving in the background.
If this sounds severe, it is because the situation is severe. A country that runs trillion-dollar deficits in ordinary times and watches debt climb toward historic peaks is not choosing a stable future. The real danger is that deterioration can feel manageable for a time until it suddenly is not. If interest rates rise higher than projected, or growth becomes weaker than expected, the debt math worsens quickly. The margin for error shrinks as interest costs rise. The risk is not merely higher debt in the abstract. The risk is reduced capacity to respond to recession, to fund defense and preparedness, and to protect vulnerable households when policy flexibility is most needed."
In the 70's discretionary spending was over half the budget. Discretionary spending is money spent on services ( actually building stuff and providing services or doing stupid stuff) the government provides. Interest provides no service and most mandatory spending is wealth transfer.
Who is John Galt?
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Re: 40 trillion
[Re: Steven 49er]
#8653836
08/29/26 04:03 PM
08/29/26 04:03 PM
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Joined: May 2010
MN
Steven 49er
OP
trapper
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OP
trapper
Joined: May 2010
MN
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A common theme in empires that had a debt backed currency
"Gold is money, everything else is just credit" JP Morgan
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Re: 40 trillion
[Re: ColdspringKidd]
#8654075
08/30/26 12:45 AM
08/30/26 12:45 AM
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Joined: May 2011
Oakland, MS
yotetrapper30
trapper
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trapper
Joined: May 2011
Oakland, MS
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The labor hates the management and their grievances are justified in some situations
In some situations I am sure you are right. But, having worked crappy jobs most of my life, I have found that 99% of the time, the ones that complain the most about management are the ones that do the absolute LEAST work....
Regret is the one thing I just won't do ~~ Beth Dutton
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Re: 40 trillion
[Re: Steven 49er]
#8654152
08/30/26 09:51 AM
08/30/26 09:51 AM
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Joined: Dec 2010
Armpit, ak
Dirt
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Dec 2010
Armpit, ak
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Who celebrates Keynes as the savior of capitalism?  Nobody who runs perpetual deficits is even following Keynes.
Who is John Galt?
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Re: 40 trillion
[Re: Steven 49er]
#8654667
08/31/26 01:14 PM
08/31/26 01:14 PM
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Joined: May 2010
MN
Steven 49er
OP
trapper
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OP
trapper
Joined: May 2010
MN
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Perfect!
More of the same.
"Gold is money, everything else is just credit" JP Morgan
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Re: 40 trillion
[Re: Steven 49er]
#8654748
08/31/26 05:54 PM
08/31/26 05:54 PM
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Joined: Feb 2011
alberta
spjones
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trapper
Joined: Feb 2011
alberta
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Myself, I?m in the Mises/Austrian/hard money camp
When ever someone speaks of entitlement,(a lot of that going on in Canada currently,,,) huge continual deficits,, ,,,,Bessent interveneing in the market/markets,,,
My mind goes straight Keynesian type thinking,,,
Don?t understand it,,,,, the Keynesian thinking
But it?s unfortunately the world we live in
And debt is only going to rapidly increase
Carry on
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Re: 40 trillion
[Re: Steven 49er]
#8654780
08/31/26 07:16 PM
08/31/26 07:16 PM
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Joined: May 2010
MN
Steven 49er
OP
trapper
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OP
trapper
Joined: May 2010
MN
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Nothing to see here folks.
"Gold is money, everything else is just credit" JP Morgan
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Re: 40 trillion
[Re: OhioBoy]
#8654978
Yesterday at 07:44 AM
Yesterday at 07:44 AM
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Joined: Jan 2007
central Haudenosaunee, the De...
white marlin
trapper
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trapper
Joined: Jan 2007
central Haudenosaunee, the De...
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Whats going on with the petro dollar? Whats going on with the carry trade? What going on with the Yen? Whats happening to Japans economy and what is the US doing to help? Whats going on in the bond market? How does rising interest rates effect our debt / interest payment? How are our oil reserves doing? What type of oil is from Venezuela and how does it help produce diesel fuel? What is the forecast for diesel fuel? Is the straight open? What is the latest laws they changed for crypto, why are they changing, and should we be part of it? What is a fiat currency and how often does it change and is the US likely to change again anytime soon? Are central banks buying gold? How much and at what levels? Is silver used to manufacture anything? How much do we have available? Are we winning the war with Iran? Whats going on with the war in Ukraine? What is our level of inventory of patriot missiles and such? What countries are implementing a draft? Why? How much money does the US plan to print and what does that do to inflation? What are the jobs market numbers? What is the unemployment rate? What are the manufacturing output of the factories in the country? Whats China up to? Whats Putin up to? What are they getting away with b/c our ships were moved to the straight? How long have ships been in the straight and what problems have the sailors encountered? Are those ships being relieved by other ships? Where did they come from what were they doing orig?
Interesting times. it's greasy. it left. sinking. tanking. nothing. rising. hurts it. needs refilled. better than not having it. refineries produce diesel. better. strait? yes. no crypto laws passed. haven't changed yet. not in my opinion. fake money. as often as needed. no, devaluation is the agenda. they have enough. none. none. yes. we have what we need. yes. stalemate. could use a few more. quite a few. sky's the limit. raises the rate. more working than ever. somewhere around 5 percent. gaining ground every day. no good. no good. no more than usual. since before hostilities started. the same conditions/issues that warriors always face. some are. previous deployments. their jobs. anything else you need to know?
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Re: 40 trillion
[Re: Steven 49er]
#8655191
Yesterday at 07:53 PM
Yesterday at 07:53 PM
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Joined: May 2011
Oakland, MS
yotetrapper30
trapper
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Joined: May 2011
Oakland, MS
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https://www.wsj.com/opinion/bond-ma...qP&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalinkYields on long-dated government bonds are rising across the world, and the reaction among the financial press and talking heads is a mini-panic: Oh no, the debt crisis has finally arrived. The better view is hurray for the bond market, as investors awake at long last from nearly two decades of financial repression. Spendthrift governments might finally have to pay more to borrow and tighten their belts as a result.
The 10-year Treasury note ticked up to 4.8% on Tuesday amid a global bond selloff that sent yields on Japan's 10-year to a three-decade high. The U.S. 30-year bond hit 5.28%, while the U.K.'s 30-year gilt rose to a 28-year high of 5.9%.
At least for the U.S., this is hardly a crisis. A 10-year bond in the 4%-5% range was normal before the financial panic and the pandemic. While rising yields may be painful for governments, and pose risks for overleveraged borrowers, they are healthy for markets because they restore price signals and provide a more accurate measure of credit risk.
After the 2008-09 financial panic, central banks kept interest rates at historically low levels and engaged in quantitative easing by buying long-dated assets, including government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. Outside the U.S. they also bought corporate debt. Inflation remained subdued, which lulled markets and borrowers into thinking that low rates represented the new normal.
Low rates enabled governments to borrow cheaply and pile on debt. Capital allocation in the real economy became distorted, and price signals were suppressed. That's because interest rates on mortgages, student loans, and corporate and municipal bonds are tied to long-dated Treasurys. Low rates amounted to a subsidy for profligate governments.
Consider Illinois, which in 2010 issued five-year bonds to finance its pensions at a 3.854% rate. This is a very successful deal for the State of Illinois and the 3.854% rate is proof the State?s economy is strong, then Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn declared. No, it was evidence that investors weren't properly pricing credit risk.
California in 2017 issued bonds for its bullet train carrying a 2.193% rate. The train still isn't close to being finished, and it may never be. Colleges took advantage of the uber-low rates to expand their real-estate empires and improve amenities to lure students. Low rates helped fuel an increase in housing prices that is now reducing the available supply of homes as owners feel locked-in by today's higher mortgage rates.
Pension funds and life insurers with long-dated liabilities poured into riskier assets with higher yields to fund future obligations. Bloomberg News reported last week that LeBron James borrowed nearly $300 million at a 4.8% rate from a pair of Midwestern life insurers in 2018 -- when 30-year Treasurys were yielding about 3% --with his bonds not maturing until late 2049.
Yields are now returning to historically normal levels as central banks have increased short-term rates to subdue inflation. New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has said he wants the bond market's signals to inform Fed policy decisions, not vice versa. Rising yields reflect in part expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer, and that governments will have to issue more debt to finance entitlements for aging populations. Governments are also having to compete in bond markets with AI hyper-scalers.
This transition isn't without financial risk, and some market crack-ups are sure to occur, though who knows where and when. Washington can help put off a doomsday with policies that help economic growth, which doesn't include tax increases or tariffs.
*** But overall the return to normal debt markets is a good development. U.S. debt held by the public at 100% of GDP is a problem, and on present trend it will get worse. Interest on the debt is now $1 trillion a year, more than the defense budget, and growing. Neither party in Washington is willing to reform the runaway entitlements that are driving the debt.
The bond vigilantes aren't yet in full cry, but their early murmurs are welcome. They are sending a message to Washington and other Western nations to clean up their fiscal acts. Bond investors may be the only people who can force the politicians to pay attention. The real worry is if the politicians don't listen.
Last edited by yotetrapper30; Yesterday at 07:56 PM.
Regret is the one thing I just won't do ~~ Beth Dutton
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