My guess is stock market headed south until a trade deal gets done with China. Not sure what to do with pulling out but at my age not sure I want to risk it with what is going on. Been a great ride but time to get off the horse for awhile and take a pause.

It's October...The "jinx month". History says the 4th quarter will be UP. This is just a response to the ISM number this morning. I prefer to be careful but stay invested

i'd say precious metals but i've taken a beaten recently.i'm also looking for another piece of land.i made a slow,boring exit from the stock market as i worry about as much as coonman at times.

yeah the manufacturing numbers where not good I hope we get a trade deal with China soon but I think that is on the back burner with impeachment issues.

Did China not just remove the tariff's on soybeans?

I thought they did mid September pork also.

Osky

Yes beans and pork were removed and there was a upward blip in the bean market and pork, but it fell a bit and now this last week both corn and beans are up. Don't know all the ins and outs but with harvest starting maybe yield estimations are being reviewed. Also we are looking at some potential weather issues with harvest. Delaying harvest always leads to more field loss, quality issues etc. Increasing the field loss by just 1% for 80 million acres of corn lowers estimated yield by about 120 million bushels. Beans would be about 3-40 million bushels. Market is really jumpy right now.

As to the stock market, October seems always be a correction month. We made some changes in June so we don't have as much exposure and yes tariffs and politics are big swingers now with an economy that is still strong, which is not a good thing. To me our real issue is work force in 3-10 years. There are 3-4 million baby boomers retiring per year now and in the next few years. Many won't fully retire but we need replacements and we may not have them and an economy won't grow much when we can't produce the labor force for our service oriented economy. Also many service related careers are dead in jobs, especially retail sales etc.
We just are not going to gain enough manufacturing related jobs to make up for those losses. Energy is a huge financial sector of our economy but does not employ a lot of labor when compared to the revenue generated, ditt agriculture. We are heading more towards an economy that serves hamburgers to each other and we may not have labor for that as well. I don't stop into the fast food places as much but in many places we see under 18 and over 60 working in those places.

Bryce

At my age a downturn in the market is a blessing. I can buy dirt cheap and sit on my investments for 20 or 30 years. I wish I would have had money to invest in 2008, it would have been quadrupled at this point.

Couple weeks back I read a report froma commodity trader. They are all expecting yields to be way down due to wet spring, late plant/harvest. Should be good for the price of beans but they are also worried about the quality of the corn crop

Didn’t we carry a billion bushel bean surplus thru the winter?

Osky

Interested to know other's thoughts on uranium, in particular as petition U232 is resolved/finalized.
I feel like I've been chasing a falling knife here, but it's hard not to be a buyer at these levels (at least of producers)

Just my opinion but I can't imagine natural resource stocks doing well if the global economy is in fact slowing.

The stock market has always been a rollercoaster. Thing about a rollercoaster is you only get hurt if you jump off.

If they can drag the markets down this year they might have a better chance in the next election that move should be expected.

Really nothing different now, then in the last 100 years of the stock market. It goes up, it goes down, when down it is a buyers market. I just looked and I'm up over 12% since Jan. 2019. The slump started last year about this time and then dipped in Dec. to cut all gains for the year of 2018. Some years you win and some years you lose, just part of economy and the world.

I see last week Japan signed a great trade deal with US but the media kept it a hush deal. It is a big deal but nothing was reported much on it. Do the research from a neutral news outlet and you will see the true facts of the agreement.

The link below discusses the Japanese and US trade agreement recently signed. That is probably why we have seen 10-20 cents per bushel in the corn market. We will see if that holds as harvest unfolds. Typically in the past short crops always get shorter and big crops get bigger. The status of the corn crop considered fair is the largest it has been in many years. It is hard at this time to know how much excessive moisture can cause molds in toxins in a crop but that could be the next big if.
I will check on the soybean carry over from 2018. The two things that are major factors right now is the 300 million USDA lowered estimate and the Chinese back in the picture. A large carryover is probably the main reason the price is not up about 10% or more.

Sorry forgot the link.
https://nypost.com/2019/08/25/us-japan-announce-preliminary-trade-deal-worth-billions/

The media may not have made much of the deal, but you can rest assured that the commodity market has that all factored into their knowledge base and investment plans and up until now not too much of a kick for sure.

Another factor is the administration has announced their subsidies for soybeans. If those numbers are in the over $ 1 per bushel range the market can factor that in and not pay more knowing the producers will get enough monies to plant next year again. Funny how things work, but that is the reality we live in.

Bryce

This is quite telling, that the media is willing to hurt the people in order to get trump out, almost seems like that would be illegal like economic sabotage or something.

Is it any wonder Trump toots his own horn as much as he does?

Osky

It goes down, I buy. It goes up, I buy. It flat, I buy. I don't pay any attention to it. When I have a few hundred in the account I add to whatever my smallest position is.
If it doesn't pay a divvy I don't own it.

The blue party is loving the fact that your 401K is heading south. The impeachment processes has started and is really having an effect on markets now. Let me say it isn't the only thing but that alone will take the wind out of the markets. The blue are loving the hate and have no care, what so ever, for the people losing their portfolios for the time being. They will do anything right now to win that election in 20. JM2¢

So to the ones that are buying. What are you buying? I think ford looks good.

Wait until Ford workers go on strike, and it will be lover.

After they see what GM gives their workers, Ford's are sure to strike.

(Disclaimer; a totally un-educated guess.)

Buying single stocks is a good way to lose money. I buy mutual funds. If you look around and do your research you can find quite a few mutual funds that have on average beat the Standard & Poor 500 for the last thirty years. That’s where my investments go.

For what? Ira,401k, non tax sheltered investment, how much time till u cash it in?

I trimmed back a few weeks ago. I'm not buying anything right now. If it weren't for the confusion in DC I'd be considering this a sale on some of the better companies stocks.

Cisco and CVS look interesting to me???

The blue party is loving the fact that your 401K is heading south. The impeachment processes has started and is really having an effect on markets now. Let me say it isn't the only thing but that alone will take the wind out of the markets. The blue are loving the hate and have no care, what so ever, for the people losing their portfolios for the time being. They will do anything right now to win that election in 20. JM2¢

They probably are but this would not even be an issue if the current administration would not consistently use and quote the market as one of the major signs of the economy being so good and asking for negative rates besides.
When he campaigned he consistently railed against the Wall Street barons, bankers etc. and stated they were not for the working families. He may be correct to some extent but double talk and hypocrisy are not forgotten by all.

I am not a Trump fan and am glad I have done very well in the market the last 3 years, but due to our age and the political instability we have chosen to cut back on securities. I am using the 100-minus my age as an indicator which means I should be about 28% in stocks but we still are a tad over 35% which I will work for the near term.

Bryce

YTD, I am still above 17%... I am a Trump fan. Last few years been good to my accounts and growth. I am still over 85% stocks and plan on my value doubling 3 more times in the next 20 years.

If you don't have the time or inclination to manage your own investments then mutual funds might be for you.

Personally i don't like having my investment results watered down by owning both losers and winners in order to have 'diversification'.

I also refused to pay a fee annually to own something. Neither will I choose to pay tax on 'phantom income' and I sure don't like paying taxes on capital gains when you MIGHT actually have a loss in your specific fund holdings.

If those things appeal to you then mutual funds are for you !

This drop is all about slowing manufacturing and slower job growth. The market doesn't care about the impeachment process because the odds are it's a big zero.

On the other hand, Bernie's health might be dragging the market down a bit because it elevates Princess Gray Beaver ahead of Biden.

Wall Street HATES Warren !!

I have been buying V, MSFT, SO, MA and a little bit of BABA

With these drastic drops the hedge funders are making money now. Quick turn arounds then buy and sell.

The reports I have been receiving is that the impeachment processes is a negative thing right now for Wall Street. Manufacturing of coarse is down for the obvious reason we know of but then 135K more workers entered the force in Sept. but down what they predicted. It is always sketchy come fall and winter with slowing of construction and buying patterns. We will see but the economy won't get any help from the blue party to help this sump this year for sure. Economists are saying the say thing, election is in full swing and blue will not do anything to help for the next year and a half. Sad but politics again not work the people but for their own agenda.

What the impeachment implies to the Street is >>> Trumpster won't be eligible for re-election >>> the bernies, joes and warrens aren't friends of the economy and the Street. The Trumpster they like because of less regulations and less taxation. The other will increase regulations and taxes will go up. If either of those 3 get elected your retirement plans will be one of the first things they will be after. Tax deferred money is where they are going to go get their money for their give away programs.

Why would Trump not be "eligible for re-election" ?

My understanding of the law if he is impeached that would include the senate vote as well he can't be on the ballot for re election. Some say senate won't have the votes though, but uncertainty is a concern.

If he is not convicted by the senate he can still run for re-election. AND.......unless the Senate also disqualifies him .he can still run for federal office....MAYBE even President... I don't see any way he will be convicted. In fact, the Senate has no Constitutional obligation to even hold a trial. McConnell could tell Pelosi to pound sand

I'm not aware of any Constitutional provision that says an impeached president, convicted and removed from office by the Senate, can't run again. I'm sure Trump would try, but it's a moot point. Trump now owns the GOP--the Senate will never convict him on impeachment.

Jim

Not my understanding of the law. If the senate convicts him on a vote he wouldn't be eligible to run for second term. It was in an article I was reading and this is what was being said, that the blue party was hoping for. Also some of the red party that want to support the impeachment, that it would be a way for him to be not eligible. I have not looked up a law per se but have read about it.

You may have a law to post to confirm your statement. Of course everything is facts when reading the internet.

I did a quick search and couldn't really get a straight forward answer for my question. Impeachment with vote from both house and senate.

Romney said he has 30 senators that would vote for impeachment if done in secret. LOL

If the senate convicts him he will be removed from office immediately.

The senate then has the authority to take a second vote to disqualify him from holding other federal offices. 2 different votes are required to do that.

But, if he is not convicted, everything continues the way it is today.

Here's a link to Snopes. I know Snopes is questionable as far as partisan bias but this is a legal question. I'm sure there is a lot of info available out there.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/failed-impeachment-nullify-term/

^ Yep, the article I was reading used the scenario if he is convicted of the crimes he committed and both house and senate voted TOO impeachment him, then what are his constitutional rights??? I understand if senate doesn't vote to convict what happens.

Can he stay in office? Can he stay on the ballot for his second term?

What are these crimes he has committed? For gods sake it is not a crime to win an election.

It is if you're Trump according to the liberals.

Diggerman >>> you will have to ask a democrat.

Snowy that is a libelous comment. No one has proven any crime . LLL

OKAY

If he did what the whistle blower claims, he did commit a crime.
It would be good, IMHO, if trump is out of the race and somebody like Rubio gets the nomination. I think there would be less of a chance that we'd have a democrat win in 2020.

So says our in house conservaliberal. Give you high marks for consistancy! lol

Ken, I have a different view of mutual fund investing; my approach has allowed my wife and me to retire at a fairly young age. Not counting an annuity we just bought, nearly all our investments are in mutual funds--stock, bond, and money market.

I don't mind paying an average of a point or so for a money manager to do the stock research and picking for me. Sure, they'll pick some losers along with the winners, but so would I--and so did I, when I tried directly investing in stocks.

Twice I've had stocks in my portfolio fall to zero. 100% losses, never recovered. That's never happened to me with a mutual fund. Biggest loss I took on a fund was maybe 60 percent back during Bush's Great Recession. That loss was realized when I locked in my loss by selling when it was down.

I study and pick mutual funds the way you do stocks, Ken. Keeps my attention for a while, which is remarkable, since it's only money, not a subject that's intrinsically interesting.

If you keep most of your assets in tax-deferred accounts, capital gains are not an issue. And with all the tax cuts, capital gains aren't the bite they once were.

Jim

Only the House votes on impeachment. It is like a grand jury indictment.

Only the senate holds a trial and votes to convict or not.

But even if the House votes to impeach and the Senate votes to convict, it is still possible for him to run for re-election. Only if the Senate ALSO votes to disqualify him does a question arise about re-election.

Did you hear that, Republicans? Wake up! If you would only nominate a decent man of whatever conservative principles--so long as he does have principles. Even give me Ted Cruise, over Orange Man or the Socialist gun-grabbers of the Democratic party.

Jim

Ken, I have a different view of mutual fund investing; my approach has allowed my wife and me to retire at a fairly young age. Not counting an annuity we just bought, nearly all our investments are in mutual funds--stock, bond, and money market.

I don't mind paying an average of a point or so for a money manager to do the stock research and picking for me. Sure, they'll pick some losers along with the winners, but so would I--and so did I, when I tried directly investing in stocks.

Twice I've had stocks in my portfolio fall to zero. 100% losses, never recovered. That's never happened to me with a mutual fund. Biggest loss I took on a fund was maybe 60 percent back during Bush's Great Recession. That loss was realized when I locked in my loss by selling when it was down.

I study and pick mutual funds the way you do stocks, Ken. Keeps my attention for a while, which is remarkable, since it's only money, not a subject that's intrinsically interesting.

If you keep most of your assets in tax-deferred accounts, capital gains are not an issue. And with all the tax cuts, capital gains aren't the bite they once were.

Jim
^ That is how I play the game also. I don't have the time or want to take the time to pick/play and follow each day as an investor. I don't want a FA or want to pay for one, so I have control over much of the decision making.

Absolutely right about the capital gains in a tax deferred account............but you can't write off any losses either.

I understand that a lot of people would rather hire professional management. That makes sense in some cases. I also think that with mutual funds it will take a longer time to achieve results than it does with single stocks.........as long as you choose wisely.

That really surprises me to hear you had two 100% losses. Thinking back I cam hard pressed to remember what those could have been. I remember ValuJet after the Everglades crash and Lehman Brothers. But there were a lot of small drillers who are still struggling due to low oil prices and of course Transocean after the Deep Water Horizon. Those types of companies have sure seen drastic reductions in their stock prices..

One hard & fast rule for me is NEVER invest in a stock under $10.00. Most that drop under $5 never recover

I could never support Rubio. EVER ! Cruz maybe but I think if Rubio was the nominee a Dem would win in a walk.

I like to micro invest in single stocks sometimes but it’s pennies. To me that’s basically gambling. In my world mutual funds are the only way to go for long term investing. I am not good at math and I don’t have time to thoroughly vet each stock. My hard earned money is too important, I can’t afford to risk picking a loser, so I pick mutual funds with 30 year or longer records that have averaged better than the S&P 500.

It’s a tortoise and hare situation to me. Single stocks can make you richer, faster, but you just might lose your butt. Mutual funds are slower generally but you have a professional that does nothing but pick funds all day every day. I’m a roustabout, an oilfield worker. I hire a professional to do my taxes, work on my cars, give my children medical care, etc. so why wouldn’t I want a professional picking my investments?

I am certainly not a fan of cruz, but I'd vote for him before giving another to trump.
Whtie, if Rubio were the rep in the race who would you vote for?

That makes sense to me Bob. Everyone's situation is different. If i was ever inclined to invest in a fund it would be an index or two.

But remember that you can make money regardless of which way the market moves,if you have the flexibility of calling your own shots. With a mutual fund you can't do that USUALLY....unless you buy into a short only or a long/short fund. And USUALLY the fees on those are even higher.

But the bottom line is you have to have the time and the interest to put in the work. Most people don't. Most people's eyes glaze over when reading a prospectus or a chart of probability distributions. I get it.

Tough question. I have no answer.

If if and buts were candy and nuts we'd all have a merry Christmas. Trump is the candidate unless he is impeached AND convicted.

Rubio would have never beaten Clinton and Cruz would have only stood a slightly better chance.

In this political climate one votes for the lesser of two evils, waiting for the perfect candidate means never voting again.

With today's new tax rules if married and filing jointly and your taxable income federally is below 75 K your capital gains tax are zero, yes zero and then 10% and a max of 15% while income tax is 12% then 22%.
Due to the major shift in the loss of personal exemptions and the raise to for elderly to 26,000 for itemized deductions that has changed our tax management considerably. We always had high itemized but not over 26K and when we lose the 8 K of personal exemptions we would pay more tax. Now we have a lot of our RMDs mailed directly to our charitable organizations and that helps keep our taxable below the 75K.

We are actually looking at re-characterizing our deferred accounts so we can pay more capital gains tax and not the 22% federal income tax. I don't know what will happen after the 7 years of this new personal tax law is done but I will take advantage of this while it is here. As one's deferred accounts grow there are tax benefits but one pays the federal and state rates on the gross amount as income and not capital gain from a tax perspective. We saved income taxes by buying those accounts and will pay income tax when withdrawn. With all the tax changes and other aspects I have found that we are on average a higher bracket retired than while working and that makes a large amount of deferred facing more tax and certainly for our children if they inherit any of that versus other assets. One gets a stepped up basis on death with non deferred assets, but not with deferred.

Bryce

USMCA needs to pass congress. It would be good for our businesses and our stock market

[quote=white17]



Only the House votes on impeachment. It is like a grand jury indictment.

Only the senate holds a trial and votes to convict or not.

But even if the House votes to impeach and the Senate votes to convict, it is still possible for him to run for re-election. Only if the Senate ALSO votes to disqualify him does a question arise about re-election.[/quote]

This part is incorrect. The constitution says "The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors." If he's convicted, he has to be removed from office, there is no other punishment. It also says "Judgment in Cases of Impeachment shall not extend further than to removal from Office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, Trust or Profit under the United States; but the Party convicted shall nevertheless be liable and subject to Indictment, Trial, Judgment and Punishment, according to Law. " So he could not run for re-election. But he could be tried in a regular criminal court.

Should someone get a mutual fund now or wait?
I'm thinking of getting a mutual fund but I'm a little nervous seeing a few things 1) if the potus is's impeached markets will take a big hit and 2) if any Democrat becomes the potus in 2021 there will be a recession. The market will fall fast.

It depends on how old you are. If you are young you might want to get in now.
I know a couple guys who kept talking about investing in some form since I started buying stocks. They still haven't done it. In the mean time my money has continued to grow and allowed me to retire a couple years early with everything I own being paid for.
Lots of folks decide to wait and never get around to it.

A lot depends on your age, how much you plan to invest and in what fund. If you have waited until now to buy a fund, if it were me I would not buy one now. Typically the market is more likely to be over valued then undervalued over time. What is the big unknown for me personally is how much over valued is the market which makes it shaky in times like we may have looming in front of us. I had funds in the market when Y2 K was over, when 9-1-1 happened and the 2008 down turn. That one alone was 41% the way our portfolio was laid out and I did not move more than 10% of the funds during any of those, but I am choosing at 72 not to have that much exposure in the future.

Also what type of fund, large cap, mid cap, small cap, US firms, global, value funds, funds with higher dividends or sector specific like medical, energy, etc.
There are so many to choose from that you can find one that fits your needs.

About 15 years ago at age 57 I started moving more funds into dividend stocks which I wanted as retirement income. I am really taking a close look at that today as dividends are taxed at your income tax rate and capital gains at 0, 10 and 15 depending upon income. This makes taking some risks on growth investments much less of a risk to me.

Bryce

The short, easy answer is Yes...yes you should.

I would also say that the longer you have until retirement, the more "Yes" is the right answer.

Thanks. A lot on here would consider me young as I'm in the 30's. I had most of my 401k in mutual funds but when I left my job fidelity closed my account due not enough money in.
Thinking either getting a Roth IRA or just buy mutual funds directly. When it comes to this type of money issues, I'm a novice.

Don’t just buy “A” mutual fund, buy several. Do your research, choose funds that have been around for 20 or 30 years and have averaged a good return since inception. Depends on your age a lot though. Me, I can stand to have down years so I might pick finds that are a little more volatile cause I’ve got 30+ years to recover. Someone nearing retirement might choose less volatile funds because they can’t take the hit at that point in life

Adam, if you can fund a ROTH ira DO IT!
Anytime, after five years, you can take the money you put in out if needed for something. And the money it has made stays in the account tax-free. Since you already paid the taxes before putting your money in the account there is not tax to pay on it either.

Thanks. I'll be looking into it.

I think I stick with the James' opinion "I'm not aware of any Constitutional provision that says an impeached president, convicted and removed from office by the Senate, can't run again" and that of the legal community.

Here's another bit of information;

https://theconversation.com/could-p...-and-convicted-but-also-reelected-124384

You might want to check on that again. It is Pelosi that is holding it up.

https://windsorstar.com/news/nation...wcm/57818b92-b5bf-490b-b9f5-93be50835a87

I doubt they want to see things go south it is the manufacturing numbers and a the trade deals when and if a trade deal is stuck the market will soar.

I'd like to think that too Danvee, and as you and I believe, the trade deals should help us.

The question is then, why are elected officials doing everything in their power to stall these trade deals?
Why did all the old trade deals benefit every country but ours?

Glad we don't have the cookie-cutter politician running things anymore.

figuring out the stock market is like trying to figure out a woman going through the change of life!

Went up nicely today. Up last two days.