This perfectly sums up my area.

I believe it’s all of the above.
Habitat first and foremost. Turkeys need nesting cover and brood cover.

Predators are next. Everything from fire ants to coyotes eat turkeys or eggs. Let’s not forget aerial predators as well. That’s where the brood cover comes into play. They need open understory with cover above for protection.

Hunting pressure ranks right there with predators. I haven’t been turkey hunting as long as most on here, but when I started I might see 1-2 other hunters on a 20K WMA. Now every entrance has a truck or three. We’ve lost the meaning of turkey hunting. It used to be calling and woodsmanship got you a bird. Now it’s decoys and fanning. I know of folks that own more decoys than turkey calls. There’s NO SKILL in that, I don’t care who you are. Any and every person that can hold up a gun, regardless of age, can and is now killing turkeys by throwing out a decoy. If you don’t believe it’s true, challenge those that use them to go one season without them and see how many birds they kill, lol.

The 20K acre WMA I mentioned used to be one of the hotspots in our area. It wasn’t if you’d hear a bird, it was which bird are you going after. I blame a lot of its decline on the Hurricane that came through and wiped out almost all of the swamp. When sunlight hit those areas it grew so thick hat hogs have a hard time getting through it. That and hunters carrying in flocks of decoys didn’t help. There’s no trapping or very limited going on as well.
With that said, our DNR has adopted a quail management practice, and when quail thrive, everything else prospers as well.

Exactly right on every buster that can sit a greenfield. The old timers had rules they played by for a reason.

Decoys need to be done away with, period. Then develop an ethic that shuns those who go against "rules" of the game.

Shooting quail on the ground may be legal but how many ground shooters would get invited back to a plantation?

I disagree on decoys, its simply not that simple. I have hunted turkeys for over 35 years, I killed many birds before I bought my first decoy. Put a couple in my arsenal with mixed results. Used them sometimes
and didn't others. Sometimes they continue to bring a bird in that may or may not have come in anyway and other times have spooked birds away. I still use them occasionally but they are not the sure and easy thing
that you claim them to be.

I agree decoys don't kill more turkeys in my area. I've harvested a lot of birds and never used a decoy. My experience is that a decoy can be a deterrent for success of the hunt.
Either way I don't believe decoys would make the decline a factor in stats for a decline. JM 2¢

Around here, the decoys have been so abused that if a turkey hears your call and sees a decoy, he is going the other way. The good ole days of calling and the turkey coming right in on a string are gone

The best way to hunt them in these highly pressured areas is to get in their house. Do your scouting and find the roost. Play topography and land features to get as close as possible. Give him a few very light putts right before he flies down. Watch him fly down into your lap.

Or do it the other way around, catch him coming back to the roost at dark

That's how I kill my birds here. They very rarely gobble. Maybe two or three times while they are still on the roost, then as soon as their feet hit the ground they don't say a word the rest of the day

It isn't nearly as fun as calling one right in and hearing him gobble his head off, but it is rewarding to outsmart these old jokers

I envy the guys with turkey populations so thick they can call them right in. Everywhere else I have hunted turkeys has been a piece of cake compared to these Central NC birds

I have to agree with you. I put out corn feeders for the deer and pheasants in my yard. Have only had one pheasant visit the feeders and no deer. Just squirrels and lots of turkeys. Problem is, there is turkey crap all over the yard. My little shih-tzu eats it and comes in the house and pukes.

At least in the SE, there is not a study that shows hens are successfully raising numbers of poults due to predation. Every state has done one or two studies and all reach the same conclusion - predation of nests and poults - it is not even a question anymore - it is fact. The question is, what can be done to improve nest success and poult survivability? There are not enough people who trap anymore to make an widespread difference.

Even the big turkey states like missouri are going down. What missouri and kentucky and other states had going is they had lots of turkeys. If you have 50,000 hens producing 1.7 poults per hen - like my home state of AR, or you have 200,000 hens producing 1.7 poults per hen like Missouri - where do you think the population is going to hold out longer. Missouri is going down the same path as AR - it is just a longer road.

And as far as early seasons disrupting the social hierarchy of the breeding season - Arkansas moved to a late season opener years ago - something Dr Chamberlain is a champion of - and the poult production is still down at the bottom.

"They" introduced turkeys here some years back, it took awhile but they're everywhere now, have at least 50 visiting the house every day for the buffet.
We have a very limited hunting season, no turkey culture here so not a lot of hunters, plenty of low grade coon and possums, eagles making a comeback, a few coyotes sneaking in.
It's weird, We'll have essentially no woodchucks, then the population explodes, a few years later just a few again, same with coons, and deer, Hardly any then a rapid increase then the population drops. Probably happen to these turkeys too. No idea on how it works, or why around here.

Throw in a year or three of bad hatchings due to untimely weather and the struggle worsens.

I had read online that the turkey population was down a bit in N.Y. a few years ago. I know it's been awhile since I've seen any, I just figured maybe the nest raiders were reducing the population. I used to see them quite regularly here and there in my short travels. I did see a few in the last few months however finally.

Decoys have nothing to do with it. I have killed more turkeys without a Decoy than with one.

And I also disagree a out decoys. I have killed over 100 turkeys - two of them while I was using decoys. I dont use decoys a lot - but I have used them enough to kill more than two turkeys using them.

Chemicals are the biggest cruplet, farmers and Monsanto are the reason, thats what changed the biggest change was 2005. Farmers sold out and gave control to there beloved government.

The question is not what is causing the decline. Study after study after study in every state in the SE - and now Missouri - confirm, beyond a shadow of a doubt - the direct cause is predation of the nests and poults. That is not the question. There are some possible indirect causes - like mediocre nesting habitat contributing to increased predation - but it is not the habitat that is killing the eggs or poults (and even adults), it is predators. The question is how to reduce or slow the predation.

Joke, them studies are bought off, just like MDC saying the reason for song bird decline is the hobby people saling feather's. Joke lies,lies.

Not all studies. I know some guys who gathered the data. Actually worked with some of them gathering data. Go bury a turkey egg under the leaves around here and see if they last 35 days.

White cliffs
No doubt predators take there share as they have from the beginning. But we are seeing hens every year with single poults you have got to no these nest were not destroyed, it's a reproductive problem anytime a study comes up the farm bureau, Bayer as other are effecting the results. Same with deer in heavy farming numbers down single or no fawns rare doubles use to be three fawn's were pretty normal. Coyote, sure just look at the studies.

Nate,
So, you don't think predators are a reason for the turkey decline?

Or, is it just the research saying it's predators, poor habitat, low reproduction success that's fixed?

What do you think the problem is?

Ahh...I see your reply answering my questions as I posted this.

Hope I'm wrong, but will probably never no, I sure ain't waiten on our state or fed. government to tell the truth about anything.