I have hunted up north, and my opinion is, there are many more nest predators - specifically coons and possums in the south - not to mention, the north has no armadillos, fire ants, and not nearly as many snakes.


I challenge someone to find recent turkey research - in the last ten years - that did not find the number one DIRECT cause to be lack of nest/poult production due to predation. I am not saying it isnt out there - I read every bit of turkey research I can find - and have not yet seen the direct cause of declining turkeys due to nest/poult predation.

There are several cool podcast about dwindling turkey numbers is parts of the US and not in others. It was a subject that I hadn’t heard before.
They were saying that the heyday of the stocking efforts lasted longer than they thought and they believe it’s reached it’s stabilized numbers. They’re saying the same thing will happen in all these states later on as well.
When you have loss of habitat and increased numbers of hunters, it’s bound to happen.
Every state has a YouTube video on how great the turkey hunting is and people travel.
I remember going to Kansas for the first time in 2010. Never saw another hunter and it seemed it took me longer to drive out than shoot my limit. I went for 8 straight years and on years 7&8, it seems everyone and their brother was there.
I’m about to head to the woods for the first time this trip up here in the PNW and see what’s left of birds. Went fishing yesterday afternoon and this morning. Hoping to find birds in all my spots I found last year. I’m the type that won’t walk out bragging or even showing off, lol. I’ll ditch the bird, walk to the truck and put everything away to make sure no one is around, then walk back and get my bird.
I’ll say it again, even though no one believes it, do away with decoys and reaping (fanning), and watch the numbers of turkey hunters decline and turkeys increase. Very, very, very few individuals or videos where a decoy or fanning isn’t used. And I love the folks that say that decoys scare more than they kill…then why tote that sucker everywhere you go?

Another pile of BS, Same thing with the quail,how bout the pheasants probably the rats and rabbit also.lol you'll never get the Btrds to say anything about chemical's, joke!! To much money involved.

WannaBe,
What is happening to the hens? How will the hen population increase if we outlaw decoys and reaping?

What am I missing in your logic?

X2 and I don’t use decoys unless I am with a kid

It’s not a decline in hens, it’s a decline in breeding gobblers.
I will admit, habitat is first and foremost, if everyone doesn’t know that then it’s a moot point. On lands with the habitat (nesting and brooding) turkeys are thriving and increasing in numbers. I’ve seen more turkeys in my travels through SWGA this year than ever before. Heck not only am I seeing them in fields, I’m seeing them in peoples yards.

I’ll use Chickasawhatchee as an example for habitat and excessive hunting. Before the hurricane came through, the last day of the previous season, my son and I were there and laughed when birds started gobbling. From our spot we heard 7 different gobblers sound off. We looked at the app and decided which to go after. That was May 15…the last day of turkey season. There were days that I could ride through and not see another vehicle.

Now fast forward 2 years later. Most of the Swamps were destroyed and a lot of the pines. You could drive through and not hear a gobbler and any place you stopped. For some reason the were almost 2 vehicles at every gate. I would read on social media where one boy got there basically the night before and put out his decoy in one of the “wildlife openings” and limited out…3 birds on the first day of the quota hunt.

Now don’t get me wrong, those were well within the rules. But, common sense has to take place at some point with hunters. Yes it’s 20K acres, but don’t go killing everything you see. I haven’t hunted public by my own choice because I have access to private, and the numbers out there are down. I did go to one closer to you this year after a quota hunt ended, and may hit one when I get back. Even when I was just hunting WMA’s, it was one bird per. I have only shot one bird in Georgia by my own choosing because of the decline. You take away decoys and the hunter numbers will drop. Before decoys became a “thing” there were very very few turkey hunters and those that did it stayed quiet about it.

Common sense hunting applies or should apply to everything you hunt. I know a guy with private land that complains he never has any gobblers like he used to…he’ll shoot 3 jakes a year. Yes, that was legal then. Same with deer hunters. They never have any trophy bucks, well no kidding, they shoot every 2yr old they see.

The studies say if the turkey numbers “are” going to rebound, it will be through the efforts of private landowners. I took that as the common hunter just doesn’t care and isn’t smart enough to figure it out. I’m out of state right now and have thousands or hundreds of thousands of public land to hunt, we limited ourselves to one bird from each property last year and this isn’t even my state.

Now getting back to the hens…ride through most private lands you and I trap and look for predator tracks…very few. Now ride through a WMA that had high numbers and now the habitat has been altered or destroyed and you won’t travel 300yds without seeing enough predator tracks to make you drool. One one rode a few years after the hurricane I picked up 8 piles of bobcat scat. 6 piles of coyote scat and saw for the first time in my life, actual coon trails. I mean nothing but coon tracks that looked like a hog trail. No habitat, predators out of control, every hunter toting a flock of decoys in their quest to be the first on Facebook or any of those other sites, and you have what we have now…fewer turkeys.

Are there plenty of other factors, sure. But let’s conduct umpteen studies instead of just starting with the obvious. Yeah, hopefully reducing limits and a shortened season will help, and it should, but it will ultimately depend on the hunters. Take the place we hunt, and I’m not bragging, every year since I’ve been there the numbers have slightly increased. Yes we have optimal habitat. But we could rape that population in 2-3 years time and maybe hear a gobble or two on opening day. We make a conscious decision to shoot only 1 bird each (three of us) and let the others live. No decoys. No fanning. You hunt turkeys the right way. You learn to call and how to set up. You learn your weapon and its capabilities. You don’t have to take that “iffy” shot. You world will NOT end if you don’t kill a bird. Before I left I was still hearing gobblers every morning checking traps. I was seeing strutters while driving through and saw a hen with poults. We want to have a place we “know” we have an opportunity at killing a bird every year. More than killing, we want to be able to play the game. Yesterday afternoon was my first hunting day here (been fishing) and I got to play the game. Didn’t kill him, but I’ll be back in a few days and we’ll play the game again. I put in 6 miles to find him…no decoys and no fans. Just good old fashion turkey hunting and lots of boot leather.

Talking to the landowners I trap for, they all have an abundance of turkeys and all limited their take. It will take a conscious effort on every hunter out there to make this better, if it can ever become how it used to be.

We have a 11,000 acre National Wildlife Refuge 2 miles from my house.
Tremendous turkey habitat. Used to be full of turkeys. No hunting allowed of course.
Turkey are gone from there as well.

I agree with your theory as to why most public land and some pressured private tracts have a decline in 2 yr old + gobblers, but nothing you touched on, except habitat quality changes, explains the overall drop in total turkey numbers. I'm looking at a large scale overall decrease in numbers across a county/multiple counties.

As a GW, burning state gas to patrol all over 5 or 6 counties, I have seen the turkey population here go from very large (in the late 90s) to a weak population. Large late summer/fall flocks of 40 and 50 birds were commonly seen all over this area. Today, 3 or 4 turkeys together is about it. This change was a gradual drop over a 12 to 15 year span. In this area of the state it seems to have "bottomed" out a couple years ago and may be stabilzed. I hope it is.

BTW...the very best habitat properties still have good populations...not like they did, but still very good. It's those mediocre/poor habitat properties that basically have few birds today....but they sure used to.

I don't know that harvest reporting is the best way to estimate turkey numbers. When I was a kid in the early 2000's I remember turkeys being EVERYWHERE. I thought turkey hunting was the easiest thing in the world. In those years the harvest numbers were 60-70 birds every spring.

The highest harvest number was in 2020 with 246 turkeys. 199 last year.

I think we focus too much on "How many turkeys did you see?" and not enough on "How many turkeys are you making?"

Question, can a Jake breed hens?

It is lack of nest success due to predation and lack of poult survival due to predation. That has been proven time and time again. That is the DIRECT cause. Over harvest of gobblers or chemicals may be contributing to a declining turkey population - but it does not directly destroy nests of kill poults. In the current Missouri study, they were finding he s five to seven years old from a previous study. In their study area, they said survival of adult turkeys was not a problem. Survival of nests and poults is THE number one problem. Same with TN. Same with every other study I have read.

There are vast acreages where there is little hunting and no chemicals and the turkeys are declining. I have property that joins a 27,000 acre NWR. There is a two day youth hunt and a quota two day general hunt. They did. No one killed a turkey this year. No one I talked to who hunted there heard a turkey. Ten years ago, when scouting and listening - I would hear ten or twelve in a morning. No fescue, no chemicals, four days of limited hunting - no turkeys. There are multiple areas like this all over turkey country.

The reason for the decline is not a mystery. How to abate the damage done by predation is the mystery. There are not going to be enough folks trapping to make a widespread difference - maybe on some local properties. There is not going to be enough widespread habitat improvement to make a difference - again - on local properties. Most of the research now is trying to determine how to lessen the contributing factors - habitat, season dates, other regulations - etc.

I get what you’re saying White.
It’s always the first blame.
Predator densities vary greatly by habitat types, yet poult survival is consistently horrible.
Sorry, don’t buy that this is the biggest factor.

I guess all the research is in accurate.

Here in the deep South there has never been any widespread predator control. You would have to go all the way back to the late 70s, very early 80s, and a couple years about 2010/2011 before you see any kind of fur price incentives that would "excite" southern trappers. Even during those years there were never a lot of trappers down here. Still ain't.

I'm 57 years old and the predator populations here are very similar to what they have always been....with the exception of coyotes and grey fox. Coyote have increased a lot, but their numbers were high when the turkey numbers were high. Grey fox in most areas have disappeared (not entirely due to the coyotes, but nonetheless gone.) Coons, possums, bobcats, etc are about the same as when I was a kid.

So, if it's predators causing poor nesting/poult survival success, then what predator is it? Dont appear to be more snakes here that b4. There may be more avian predators...hawks and crows. Owl population seems about the same.

I dont see the evidence here in the pineywoods of the deep South that this problem is mostly predator-related.

I'm not buying it either, if it's proven why are they still doing studies, it directly and indirectly goes back to chemicals,

Money has a way of hiding the truth.

Ding ding we have a winner. I will take my personal observations from boots on the ground into account much sooner than I will the observations of a private or government funded researcher

I certainly don’t know the answer.
It is a troubling situation for the die hard turkey hunter.
I do know that a lack of insects is not good, and not just for turkeys.
Most don’t notice the not so obvious changes.

The problem with habitat is the same as the problem with removing predators - it will not be done on wide scale. My adjacent three neighbors own 1400, 1200, and 1000 acres respectively. About 50/50 field/woods. They are cattle ranchers. They plant fescue - they dont kill it. And predators not even close 25 years ago to what we have now - except for fox and mink.

How are you going to get landowners to engage in habitat improvements. Our commercial timber companies who used to burn a lot in the 90’s - dont burn at all now. We know there is never going to be much trapping effort again without a significant increase in fur prices.

SW GA somewhat of anomaly when it comes to habitat improvement. In my neck of the woods, very few landowners compromise monetary production of private land to produce more wildlife.


And how does research that finds predators the direct cause put money in someones pocket when the state dnr and turkeys for tomorrow are funding it.

You don’t unless you buy the ground, money usually trumps everything else