My personal opinion is that it WILL happen. Not necessarily as bad as then but it will be bad. I believe that this AI frenzy is a bubble. But when will it burst? This year, next? Who knows.......

Higher 10 year T-notes mean investors want to be paid more to hold U.S. debt. Why? Because, imo, inflation isn't not only not going down, it's rising. Nobody knows how Trump is gonna handle Iran, but everyone is expecting gas to be higher for longer, which will make prices higher.....which pretty much eliminates the prospect of more rate cuts, and increases the possibility that the next Fed move will be UP not down.... which would make US debt more expensive.

If the Fed raises rates again, the market will not like it, and it will contract. But by how much? And for how long? When the Fed rose rates following Covid, the market did contract. The DJIA, for example, fell from ~36k all the way down to ~28k in 2022. BUT it was back to it's post-Covid highs by the end of 2023.....and since then has been on a tear, despite higher rates that have been slow to come down (good thing, imo).