My personal opinion is that it WILL happen. Not necessarily as bad as then but it will be bad. I believe that this AI frenzy is a bubble. But when will it burst? This year, next? Who knows.......

Higher 10 year T-notes mean investors want to be paid more to hold U.S. debt. Why? Because, imo, inflation isn't not only not going down, it's rising. Nobody knows how Trump is gonna handle Iran, but everyone is expecting gas to be higher for longer, which will make prices higher.....which pretty much eliminates the prospect of more rate cuts, and increases the possibility that the next Fed move will be UP not down.... which would make US debt more expensive.

If the Fed raises rates again, the market will not like it, and it will contract. But by how much? And for how long? When the Fed rose rates following Covid, the market did contract. The DJIA, for example, fell from ~36k all the way down to ~28k in 2022. BUT it was back to it's post-Covid highs by the end of 2023.....and since then has been on a tear, despite higher rates that have been slow to come down (good thing, imo).

Dave Ramsey is against bonds. What you say about that?

am age 79.5. My retirement account is 65% bonds
I always think about this. I am 78.5 years old and my retirement account is 65 securities, versus 35% fixed, almost the opposite of yours. Our financial planner feels with our other sources of income that look very stable we can deal with that amount of risk.

Bond markets are impacted by several things. Two of the larger ones typically are inflation and also the bond market chasing dollars as other investments are pulling monies away, such as stocks, real estate, minerals and assumed or real economic growth.

Bryce

I recently read an article discussing the traditional 60/40 equity/bond allocation that was touted as the best choice for a diversified portfolio for most people over the last several decades.

Newer research indicates that perhaps a 90/10 allocation is better today than 60/40. It used to be that fixed income and equities were pretty much inversely correlated.......but that has not been the case in recent years. Further......the recommendation of that 90/10 split is 90% S&P index and 10% money market.

I am about 85/15