lol
Calvin I’m gonna come take one of those over populated gobblers off your hands next spring! Hunted NW Minnesota last year and NC Minnesota this year. Turkeys both places, but not over populated lol.

Big picture observations………lol
Just an old country boys local take on wild things around these parts.

I don’t know the answers. I wish I did. All I know is I want my granddaughter to have turkeys to hunt when she’s old enough.
Yes, plenty of times I’ve killed the Boss and hear birds the next week I never knew existed. No, saving gobblers may not have an impact. But everything GA has done so far hasn’t had an impact either.
Like I’ve said before, all I can control if the property I hunt. Thankful that the landowners I trap for also feel the same as I do and they have plenty of turkeys.

I haven't read through all the posts, but I will add my 2 cents. I don't know about the decline caused by chemicals, for around here ag is not that big. Especially in the mountains. I turkey hunt some but not much. Could it be their natural cycle? I believe a lot of around here are eaten by predators. You take a gang of coons foraging through the woods. They are bound to eat up alot off nests. Nobody kills birds of prey like they used to. Raptors are hard on small game young chicks. Around houses cats are hard on critters as well. Clear cuts benefit turkeys as well at stages of the cut. It provides great cover for nesting. The feds don't cut around here any more. I don't think west nile harms turkeys that much, but the disease is very hard on ruffed grouse. I wouldn't doubt if grown turkeys wouldn't eat up newly hatched chicks of another clutch? They will eat young grouse. Just my thoughts on the matter.

Clay: You're welcome here anytime. It's a 35 minute drive to my farmland (turkeyland) from my place.

SE MN is where you want to be for turkey here in MN. They transplanted the turkey throughout the state years and years ago but originally were cropped in SE MN (bluff country with farmland mixed in). They seem to do better there.

I see other states have a much more liberal bag limit. We only get one here per season (last I checked) so "maybe" that has something to do with the numbers?

ground nest predators will have a big effect on this and it is not profitable to trap them anymore.....

Thanks Calvin! Good chance I’ll take you up on the offer!! I gotta “thing” about chasing turkeys lol.
If an area is getting yearly reproduction, I don’t believe harvesting gobblers has any effect on the population. It’s when the numbers aren’t being replaced with successful hatch’s that numbers plummet.

You know what our country is like down here. It’s premium turkey habitat, or used to be anyway. Numbers are a fraction on their former self. We used to kill 800 plus in a spring season in my county. Struggle to hit 300 now. We slightly broke 400 this year due to doubling the season length.

AR went to a late season - mid Apr opening almost ten years ago. It doesnt help. The late season theory is just that - a theory. There is probably more anecdotal evidence showing it makes no difference than it does. Dr Chamberlain has a strong influence.

Almost all research shows poult production is down due primarily to predation of both nests and poults - not herbicides, cow manure, early season, or anything else. Lack of nest success due to predation and loss of poults has been shown in almost all research to be the Direct cause of southern turkey decline.

I disagree it's that cut and dry. Many a study where predator control has been tested exclusively on dedicated parcels and the hatch rate has remained below the normal cycle.

I stress again, predator control, loss of habitat, etc., has been the main focus of studies in the SE and the numbers have not improved. CERTAINLY they all play a roll, but we're still missing something.

You have to get pretty serous about trapping to make much if any difference in a hatch rate on ducks, and I would think it was the same on any ground nesting bird. Everyone thinks if you catch a coon or skunk you saved a bunch of nests. In reality all you did is change who is going to eat it. I have seen numbers from over 30,000 duck nests when I trapped for Delta Waterfowl. You have to trap for four months hard.

Burning, mowing hay early and rain make decline.

Burning at the wrong time can be harmful but burning at the right times vastly improves turkey habitat. All the farmers I know are going to mow their hay when it is at its best and the weather is promising. It is unfortunate that it happens to be at nesting time in our part of the country many years. Flooding and cold rain are hard on poults for a couple of weeks also. Cold being the key word here until they have feathers to help keep them dry and warm.

There has been a study on EVERYTHING mentioned…
Too many gobblers shot
Not enough hens going to nest
Nest raiders
Poult/chick eaters
Habitat
Season timing
Season lengths
Weather
Hunting pressure
Hogs
Raptors
Seed coating
Supplemental feeding
We reached the pinnacle years ago
This will be the new norm
Etc…
All great points but still no change.
Control what you as an individual can control, and hope for the best until they derive a definitive answer. I personally don’t thing there’s a one fix solution. It’s a combo of everything mentioned. Just tackle the one you can grasp and work with it.

You left off one that hasn't been looked at enough.....

....disease(s).

Another one I am curious about. Inbreeding. Is anyone aware of any research in that field? I know most critters have dispersal of some kind but have no idea how this works in the turkey world.

Everything I have read talks about a cycle that happens with turkeys after restocking in reasonably good habitat. They seem to flourish and increase in number for quite a few years and then decline over a period of several yeas. Areas near me that used to have great turkey numbers where they trapped stock for restoration projects are now in serious decline while other areas of the state where the restorations took place more recently are still increasing. Overall, our state is at near record harvest. That is great for the booming areas but not so good for the areas in decline, especially since no one can pinpoint the reason for the decline.

This seems to be a fairly long process over a period of decades. Just wondering if genetics could be playing a role in this cycle......

Yes, left that one out. Did read a study on that as well.

Yes, that’s the “reached the pinnacle years ago” and “this is the new norm” study.

I think turkeys are on the rise on my place. The last 4 or 5 years now they seem to stay around all winter and live up in the cedars. I do know a lot of predators get their eggs though. I find some broke open a lot. The big bull and rattles I bet even they get their share. I saw a huge bull today driving out and I like to have them around. They do a lot of rodent killing and I'm always glad to see old friends each year.

Very mild winter and seen more turkeys on my farm then in years this spring Also when working my fields this spring seen more coyote tracks then other years

Because studies show that does not mean it is going to improve numbers when nothing at scale is being done about it

Here are some good cliff notes of what a recent five year study in MO found:

https://www.missouriwhitetails.com/threads/summary-of-the-missouri-wild-turkey-research.253167/